The Financial Dashboard – July 2020

The goals for June were:

  • Tidy the loft and begin to clear
  • Read three books
  • Audit regular spending ahead of job change
  • Track building work spending accurately

Checking the assets and liabilities:

July AssetsJuly Liabilities

These are taken, as always, from my Beast Budget spreadsheet. My savings rate according to my spreadsheet this month is -26.33%. This balances last months 86.9%, and is down to some payments coming out of my account late. My net worth fell slightly (-2.3%) which probably represents all the spending we’ve been doing on builders, plumbers and electricians. My usual cash regular savers were topped up, but our joint First Direct account has now finished. We’re going to use that money for DIY, topping up the emergency account, and ultimately start paying down our mortgage. New money in my Freetrade S&S ISA went to open a small position in Unilever (before it jumped about 8%) and DS Smith.

If you fancy a free share, sign up to Freetrade with this link (I also get one).

Goals:

Goal failed: Tidy the loft and begin to clear

Actually got round to this one, and have found a lot of books and items I will never use again. These will go on Gumtree, Music Magpie (or similar), or be given to charity shops. De-clutter time.

Goal failed: Read three books

I am still reading The Intelligent Investor. Close to the end now, and rewarding myself with some fiction. Should be done this month.

Goal achieved: Audit regular spending ahead of job change

My change of role is actually reducing my pay slightly. With that in mind I’ve followed Martin Lewis of MoneySavingExpert’s advice, and audited my direct debits and standing orders. I was previously paying £100/month on gym memberships (a couple for different purposes). With lockdown many of these were temporarily frozen, and it’s given me time to assess what I wanted and what I was using. I’ve simplified my membership down to a single one for £65, which I’m hoping will be enough to motivate me to do more.

One of the benefits of my new job is a shorter commute, so I’ve reduced my monthly fuel budget. I’ve been putting money aside for holidays, and that has gradually been accumulating, so I’m going to hold off adding to that for now. I’m not completely sure what my new salary will be, so if further pruning needs to happen it will come at the end of the month.

Goal achieved: Track building work spending accurately

I have kept a google sheet for this, and input all our spending. As with any grand design, there’s been a fair creep in budget.

Budgets

  • Groceries – Budget £200, spent £227.54, last month £237.31 – We’re continuing to spend lots on groceries as we host rather than eat out
  • Entertainment – Budget £100, spent £36.50, last month £56.50
  • Transport – Budget £460, spent £279.02, last month £432.65
  • Holiday – £150, spent £0, last month £0
  • Personal – £100/ £91.66/ £137.18 – Random tat
  • Loans/ Credit – £0/ £0/ £0
  • Misc – £50/ £741.96/ £724.15 – Building supplies, and the builder
  • Fees – £300 /£370.91/ £347.17– GMC/ Royal College

In the garden:

Everything has sort of been left to grow wild while we focus all spare hours on DIY. The pumpkin patch is now the pumpkin third, engulfing all in it’s spread. Sunflowers are just ending their thing, but are doing a good job of acting as climbing support for french beans. To top it off we have loads of lettuces, and the first of our tomatoes.

Goals for next month:

  • Read three books
  • Exercise four times a week
  • Sell five things

Happy August everyone, where has this year gone!

The Shrink

The Full English – The Working From Home Collapse

A big theme among the associated press/ copywriters this week has been working from home. Indeedably provided us with a fab view take on what’s going on, and what it’s like to be in That There London (as opposed to us provincial capitals) (1). When lockdown first kicked off and people moved to working from home I believed it was a flash in the pan. As a species we’re primed to dislike change, especially as we get older and higher up the ranks. It would be a few months, and then we’d all be back. But the longer this ‘new normal’ goes on, the more I think that we’re seeing a transformative change.

Neither I or MrsShrink have worked from home. It’s difficult to work from home as a Doctor. You can’t perform a physical examination. As a psychiatrist, I can’t assess the subtle interpersonal behaviours which form part of our reviews. The NHS, notoriously slow in it’s monolithic tech, won’t allow most IT solutions for security reasons. MrsShrink meanwhile, off in manufacturing, is managed by gammon-types with grey suits, grey hair and grey skin. They struggle to understand the role IT plays in their zombie company on a good day, never mind working from home. Reminds me of the Japanese IT Security Minister who had never used a computer and didn’t understand the concept of flash drives (2).

My view is therefore coloured by my experience. For most professional office jobs the story is different, and the narrative coming out of press offices says so. Google and Natwest have both told staff to stay home until next year (3, 4). Barclays are a bit more old-fashioned, but have still said a return to office will take time (5). BoJo & Co of course want everyone back in the offices, because a large proportion of our economy is structured upon those offices and the surrounding service infrastructure (6). They don’t want that to change. But people do. Commuting is miserable, and working from home means less spent on the commute and more time with family (7). For the top brass it’s an opportunity to flex/ impress with your home environment (8).

The Agrarian Revolutions, Inclosures Act and Industrial Revolution all saw massive shifts in the way people lived and worked. We’ve gone from serfdom, through shifting to villages and working on manorial lands, to living in cities/ towns working in factories/mines. The last century has seen industrial production offshored, and those productive factories replaced by service factories. Transport infrastructure has improved, but we still travel to hubs of work. Is that about to change, and if so, what’s the fallout?

For companies it offers the opportunity to lay off layers of staff and automate (9). For the worker it cuts the commute to a crawl, enables greater family time, saving cash, and geoarbitage. As an NHS worker we geoarbitaged early. I get paid the same wherever I am in the UK, so why live somewhere with a high cost of living. Now more people get that opportunity.

The fallout? House prices outside of the South East skyrocketing, as people move to lower cost of living, less polluted, less commuted areas. Commercial property? I wouldn’t touch REITs right now. If all those offices close what will the buildings become? And then there’s town and city centres. Most high streets were already hearing the grim reaper’s call. Will they transform, shorn of their officeworkers into shopping and nightlife centres. Or is this the final call? That service infrastructure left empty, sandwich artists placed on Universal Basic Income. If we’re about to see wholesale change in our working lives it’s worth thinking about what will happen to what is left behind.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

News:

Opinion/ Blogs:

References:

  1. https://indeedably.com/ghost-town/
  2. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2018/nov/15/japan-cyber-security-ministernever-used-computer-yoshitaka-sakurada
  3. https://www.wsj.com/articles/google-to-keep-employees-home-until-summer-2021-amid-coronavirus-pandemic-11595854201
  4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53484767
  5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53579428
  6. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/31/coronavirus-companies-defy-boris-johnsons-planned-return-to-work
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-53580656
  8. https://news.efinancialcareers.com/uk-en/3004187/bankers-lifestyles-pandemic
  9. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/29/lots-of-companies-are-saying-they-have-operating-leverage-thats-just-code-for-firing-people.html
  10. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8560157/Now-City-watchdog-tells-banks-reject-loans-took-break.html
  11. https://www.businessinsider.com/bernie-sanders-calls-elon-musk-a-hypocrite-over-stimulus-tweet-2020-7?r=US&IR=T
  12. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/jul/28/worlds-largest-nuclear-fusion-project-under-assembly-in-france
  13. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53563601
  14. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2020/07/30/monzos-losses-rise-114m-banking-app-warns-slowing-growth/
  15. https://www.forbes.com/sites/vineerbhansali/2020/07/29/what-locust-swarms-tell-us-about-robinhood-kodak-and-covid-mania-in-the-stock-market/
  16. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/comment/article-8552729/Five-key-areas-capital-gains-tax-reform-impact.html
  17. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/3-months-in-thoughts-doubts-panic-perspective/
  18. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/07/31/vcts-for-financial-independence-part-3-making-it-work-for-you/
  19. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2020/07/29/holidays-in-the-sun-are-not-a-human-right-people/
  20. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2020/08/01/july-2020-plus-other-updates/
  21. https://firevlondon.com/2020/08/02/july-2020-shambles-and-zombies/
  22. https://moneygrower.co.uk/july-stock-purchase-a-polarised-market/
  23. https://www.onemillionjourney.com/income-expenses-savings-july-2020-1869-saved/
  24. https://earlyretirementinuk.blogspot.com/2020/08/end-of-month-report-1st-of-august.html
  25. http://www.cantswingacat.co.uk/2020/07/30/july-income-report/
  26. https://pathtolife2.com/2020/07/30/financial-independence-update-july-2020/
  27. https://averagemoneymanagement.wordpress.com/2020/07/31/freetrade-diary-7-july/
  28. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/july-20-net-worth-and-monthly-update-23-569001-36-89-fi/
  29. https://monevator.com/freetrade-how-to-build-your-portfolio/
  30. https://monevator.com/the-agony-of-alpha/
  31. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/tesla-new-addition.html
  32. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/07/smithson-closes-in-on-2-billion/
  33. https://bankeronfire.com/not-fade-away

The FIRE Cemetery (July 2020 Edition)

Here lies a list of blogs now deceased, moved on to fairer lands…

On life support (>6 months since last post)

  • Early Retirement Guy – First post 2014, most recent was the 18th of January 2020, with an annual net worth update from Guy after an eventful year
  • Big Blue Money – Formerly Big Blue Money, now renamed to Coffee Money, posting intermittently
  • Finance Your Fire – Marc participated in lots of the FIRE blogging scenes Thought Experiments etc, but last posted in August 2019
  • Mess and Marigolds – Last posted on October the 15th 2019, their blog (mainly about cleaning with a bit of saving) started in September 2016.
  • Ready Steady Retire – Posted for about two months, from November 7th 2019 to December 21st 2019.
  • Little Miss Fire – We’ve been here before, and sad to see. LMF changed sites last year, and the new one appears to have been left while their spirits company takes the focus. First post sometime in 2018 I think? Last post 17th December 2019.
  • FIDdom – Bec started posting way back in November 2017, with her last post on the 17th of November 2019.
  • Bangkok 2 Blighty – Another big name, they started posting in April 2018, last post in October 2019.
  • Fretful Finance – Blogged from December 2nd 2018, with the most recent update on January 25th 2020.
  • 3652 Days – Fairly infrequently updated, but going since December 2015, so I suspect their post from January the 19th 2020 won’t be their last.

 

In the morgue (dormant for >1 year)

  • Fire in London – First post in Nov 2016, last in December 2018
  • Deliberate Living UK – First post 2017, last from Wephway was in January 2019
  • Sex Health Money Death – Jim first posted in August 2015, and the last post was August 2018. At that point he was close to retiring, so he may well have blogged his last.
  • Under The Money Tree – One of the original few, now dormant since December 2017
  • UK Girl on Fire – First post April 14th 2019, last on July 31st 2019. A fair amount of indeedably inspired work on their site.
  • Fire the 9 to 5 – A fairly big poster, last wrote on July 22nd 2019, first post February 28th 2018. They had retired early, so hopefully they’re off doing better things.
  • Formerly Skint – Weekly money diaries started in January 2018 and dried up in January 2019
  • Make Save Invest Money – Leon was posting from December 2017 to January 2019, and then appears to run out of steam
  • The Finance Zombie – Last post in February 2019, infrequent prior but had been going since the 25th of September 2014.

 

Dead and buried

  • Young FI Guy – One of my favourites, a titan, gone but not forgotten
  • Mr Squirrel – Another titan, sorely missed
  • The Fire Engine – About a month of posting
  • Middle Class Hustlers – Lasted about two months
  • Some Things Don’t Change – Been gone some time sadly
  • Financially Free by 40 – the latest addition, Huw’s last post was in mid-2018. The domain is now up for grabs.
  • Grizgal on Fire – Last posted on the 8th of October 2019, their website is now dead.
  • Pursue Fire – Dan started in July 2018, last post in January 2020 winding up the blog.
  • Liberate Life – Last posted on 11th September 2019, before deleting their website
  • Chuffed 2 bits – Last posted in November 2019, the disappeared from this plane of existence
  • Next Chapter FI – My records show they last posted on the 2nd of January 2020, before puffing into void.
  • MsZiYou – Feminist FIRE fan, who at one point was podcasting as well as blogging. Close to FIRE and changes in life circumstances led her to close her blog.

 

The Lazarus circuit

These are bloggers who have returned from the edge, touched the void, etc:

  • Sparklebee – After a six month hiatus returned to posting with the news they quit their job and were truly on countdown to FIRE!
  • Rockstar Finance – Is now back under new management, but with a very barren site.

 

If you can think of any more please leave a comment below, and I’ll periodically return to update.

I am indebted to /u/reckless-saving over on /r/FIREUK, who makes this post so much easier.

The Full English – Tesla doesn’t need advertising

I covered Tesla’s share price last week briefly. This week I will continue to be a fanboi, demonstrating exactly the point of my title. I’ve been idly browsing electric cars on the usual motor sites, and I’m now bombarded with adverts for the Renault Zoe, Honda electric thing (I signed up for the mailing list for that to be fair), and the VW E-Up (Yorkshire accent engaged). No Tesla adverts though. They just don’t need them.

For one, they’ve got Musk, who is a law unto himself. My considered view is that he is a maverick genius, gifted of the unique talents required to truly become a world-leader; self-belief, intelligence and funds. I think his self-belief, once confidence and always bordering on arrogance now oscillates into narcissism. He has got too high on his own supply, spent too much time reading his own hype. That does not stop him being successful.

Nor does it stop him leading a company in a disruptive direction. Which leads to hype, interest in the media, and first-mover advantage. Musk and Tesla generate their own hype by moving in ways the rest of the auto industry do not, and continuing to do so. There are parallels with Steve Jobs in the Ipod and Iphone era. There’s been a swathe of copy written this week trying to justify or make sense of this for the old guard. Arguments that Tesla is still undervalued (1), that it represents the start of a new era (2). Tesla is true capitalism at work, identification of a new disruptive direction and completely shifting the commercial conversation in that direction; to use quasi-management speak (3). People believe the hype generated. They buy the hype, in equity form and in material motors. Tesla’s profitable (4). But does that hype justify it’s inclusion in the S&P 500 and a greater valuation than Toyota. That is pure speculation and gambling.

If you fancy a shot at a free Tesla share, sign up to Freetrade with this link,

The Fire Shrink
News:

Blogs/ Opinion:

References:

  1. https://www.investmentweek.co.uk/news/4018198/value-remarkable-tesla-underappreciated-markets-fund-managers
  2. https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-newera-insight/how-tesla-defined-a-new-era-for-the-global-auto-industry-idUKKCN24N0GB
  3. https://unherd.com/thepost/is-tesla-all-that-remains-of-real-capitalism/
  4. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/22/tesla-profit-shares-fourth-quarter
  5. https://www.wsj.com/articles/everyones-a-day-trader-now-11595649609
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53201204
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jul/21/robinhood-cancels-uk-launch-of-its-investment-app
  8. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/24/zooms-marketing-chief-on-the-companys-rise-through-the-pandemic.html
  9. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53528653
  10. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2020/07/generational-wealth-inequality/
  11. https://medfiblog.wordpress.com/2020/07/24/pay-rise-half-truths/
  12. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2020/07/20/lockdown-dogs-of-the-ftse/
  13. https://firevlondon.com/2020/07/20/what-has-lockdown-done-to-my-finances/
  14. https://drfire.co.uk/lockdown-impact-on-finances/
  15. https://indeedably.com/pandemonium/
  16. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/the-carbon-budget-introduction.html
  17. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/07/ftse100-sp500-cape-ratio.html/
  18. https://thesavingninja.com/employee-share-scheme-which-option-to-take/
  19. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/how-to-save-money-without-a-budget/
  20. https://playingwithfire.uk/air-bnb-diaries-side-hustle-or-not/
  21. https://www.crackingretirement.com/retirement-isnt-static/
  22. https://earlyretirementinuk.blogspot.com/2020/07/life-in-times-of-cholera-just-kidding.html
  23. https://www.foxymonkey.com/jobs-vs-robots/
  24. https://moneygrower.co.uk/robinhood-cancels-uk-launch-similar-app/
  25. https://thefifox.wordpress.com/2020/07/21/how-much-money-should-you-have-in-your-savings/
  26. https://lifeafterthedailygrind.com/the-ikea-effect-why-diy-brings-happiness/
  27. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/07/debt-investment-trusts-for-the-brave-only/
  28. http://bankeronfire.com/zeroing-in-on-your-workplace-pension-returns
  29. https://www.mouthymoney.co.uk/how-my-simple-thumbprint-trick-can-stop-you-becoming-a-victim-of-identity-fraud/
  30. https://monevator.com/cash-versus-bonds/
  31. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-just-the-links-maam-4/
  32. https://www.moneymage.net/7-thoughts-low-cost-living/
  33. https://www.finumus.com/blog/how-to-sell-a-house
  34. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/07/25/more-agony-of-woodford-investors/
  35. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/07/22/stamp-duty-cut-property-frenzy/
  36. https://youngmoneyblog.co.uk/here-are-5-apps-to-upgrade-your-post-lockdown-finances-spon/

Quarterly Returns – Q2 2020

Quarterly return posts supplement my monthly Financial Dashboard, covering investments in detail and looking at my yearly targets. Here I track purchases and sales, document progress against my (in progress) investment strategy, and discuss re-balancing and changes over time.

A quarter of lockdown, three months blur of work, DIY and our own four walls. Did we save well?

Q2 Returns:

July Net Worth

Net worth excluding my DB pension & student loan

  • Cash Savings Accounts £12,200 (+1,900)
  • Investments £5,100 (+£,1900)
  • Property £42,900 (+£1,300)
  • Cars £2000 (no changes)

Gradual increases across the board. My net worth excluding my NHS pension continues to climb, though I expect a plateau over the next few months with property renovation spending.

Yearly Targets:

Goal 1: Build an emergency fund

My first 2019/20 goal was to build an emergency fund, as per the r/UKpersonalfinance flow chart (1). My goal emergency fund is three months total household expenses (£6k) in my name, plus a further three months (£6k) held jointly.

This has steadily increased, but recent DIY and impending builders/ plumbers/ electricians fees mean that attempts to stay above £10k are unlikely. The goal remains achievable.

Goal 2: Save 30% of my income

I calculate my savings rate using this formula:

Savings rate as % = ((Income – spend) + Cash savings + Investments + Pension contributions) / (Income + Pension contributions)

Savings rate July

YTD Savings Rate

Lockdown has pushed my savings rate up, to a best ever rate of 57% in May. This has now dropped back, but my year average to date is still 40%, well above my target.

Goal 3: Calculate savings made by growing my own food

So I started my garden notebook at the start of the year, charting what I’d sown, what grew well and didn’t, and spending/ returns. As things were sown in Q1 it was all expenses, but now I’m starting to get some growth and profit! The first tomatoes, potatoes, lettuces and other salads have been harvested. I’m estimating about £20 worth of home-grown produce consumed so far, so still negative on my £30 of seeds. Roll on the harvest, and a spreadsheet of produce.

Goal 4: Make changes to reduce carbon footprint

Working from home to an extent, no foreign travel, no major new purchases means our carbon footprint should be well down on last year. We continue to eat local produce, and use Splosh (2). They’re a zero waste refillable start-up, and unlike most of the eco washing stuff we’ve tried, their stuff actually works really well. You order a starter pack which includes refillable plastic bottles, and then they send you the concentrated product which you mix in the bottle. When the concentrate is done you send it back to them and they recycle it, or some of them are compostable. After several months of using their stuff I’ve found we actually use less than we would if it was shop bought, so it ends up cheaper. If you want to give it a go use referral code YQL240THX1 to get 15% off.

Goal 5: Automate investments and savings

I’ve automated my FreeTrade investment and building society regular saver this quarter. The bounce back in the markets means I’m currently sat at total absolute return across my investments of 7.62%. Note this is absolute figure for what has my invested figure returned, without inclusion of time/ rate of return. No XIRRs here. Good returns for my ex-UK Dev World holdings have been handicapped by purchases at the start of the year of Emerging Markets and Global All-Cap, fairly near high water marks. Those are only now back in the green.

ActivePassive

Core/ Satellite Passive/ Active Split

At the start of the Quarter I bought further into Vanguards ex-UK Dev World, pretty close to the bottom of the dip. That small purchase is up 22%. In my FreeTrade account I bought Greencoat UK Wind (UKW) and The Renewables Infrastructure Group (TRIG). This brings me closer to my 80/20 passive/active split. My active investment choices have several purposes. UKW and TRIG are both in there to provide long-term stability (particularly present in my thoughts at the time of purchase), diversification and potential dividends. They’re also part of an attempt to purchase and invest my money sustainably. I won’t go into the fund particulars in detail, as both DIY Investor UK and GFF cover UKW (3, 4), whilst DIY Investor UK has covered TRIG a fair bit (5, 6). Both holdings were purchased at a premium, and they continue to run ~109% price/NAV. I still need to integrate my crowdfunding investments into my portfolio spreadsheet, along with tidying up my global allocation data. For now I’m holding a bit of cash spare in case of another crash, and will continue to drip feed every month in an automated way.

Fancy a free share? Sign up to Freetrade using this link, and we both get one.

Hope everyone else is seeing bounce back bonuses,

The Shrink

References:

  1. https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/
  2. https://www.splosh.com/how-it-works
  3. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/07/greencoat-uk-wind-portfolio-addition.html
  4. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2019/05/17/green-money-greencoat-uk-wind-share-offer-may-2019/
  5. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/02/renewables-infrastructure-new-addition.html
  6. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/02/trig-full-year-results.html

The Full English Accompaniment – Uncoupled from earnings expectations

I wish I had bought into Tesla in March. So does everyone who didn’t. Well… most people. From a low of $361, it’s now up around $1,500. I seriously considered it, but stuck to my portfolio plans, and have now missed out. Meteoric doesn’t quite cover it.

Tesla

Image Courtesy of Google Market Summary

So I missed out, and I’m disgruntled. Fear Of Missing Out, FOMO, has been cited as a major reason for moves in the Nasdaq over the past few months. Entitled millennial’s wanting to not miss the bandwagon with their US stimulus cheques, so the trope goes. There’s a nice piece in this week’s Wall Street Journal (1), demonstrating that FOMO ain’t a new thing. From the tulips to the South Sea Bubble, most generations will get a little FOMO. We tell ourselves we’re intelligent investors, and we won’t get caught up in this hype.

Instead, we will try to intellectualise a position. Tesla does make sense in our head, as well as our gut, because reasons. It justifies a $300 billion dollar valuation, the greatest of all automotive manufacturers, at >60 times it’s earnings, because reasons (2). It’s beating sales expectations, and expanding it’s factories (2). It’s piggy-backing a rise in Chinese EVs, following a move in China towards a predominantly electric vehicle market (3). We must be right, as (confirmation bias) Piper Sandler, a proper legit firm, reckons that Tesla is worth $2,322 (4). We can make it make sense.

Last week I mentioned the TQQQ in my news. For the uninformed, the Invesco QQQ (ticker: QQQ) is an ETF that tracks the Nasdaq 100 index (5). It’s done very well with the rise of tech, thank you very much. TQQQ is a Powershares ETF triple-leveraged QQQ, just in case your risk tolerance wasn’t sated. The QQQs and the Nasdaq are again interesting this week, as following their colossal climb, we’ve seen a short, sharp drop. The options market is looking pretty negative. Valuations have been climbing, creating larger and larger multiples on the price/earnings outlooks. As the earnings come home to roost, there’s bets that the valuations are too high (6).

So, on the one hand, FOMO and other psychological biases and influences are pushing certain stocks higher. On the other, people are betting against these biases continuing, and reality (whatever that is), asserting itself on stock market prices based on valuations.

The Gestalt Market

This is basically the core philosophy of the Efficient Market Hypothesis (7).

“…asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to “beat the market” consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.” (7)

Either some of the people amongst those on the bandwagon know something the others don’t, and the out-sized pricing is justified, or they don’t, there’s no info, and market forces will re-assert themselves via a fall in price.

This theorem has plenty of criticism laid on it, by lots of big names. It doesn’t account for behavioural psychology. It doesn’t account for the various anomalies caused by small neglected stocks, or bubbles. The claims of Paul Samuelson, that the market is “micro efficient”, not “macro efficient”.

As I’ve been slogging my way through The Intelligent Investor, a comment from Benjamin Graham has laid this bare:

“Corporate accounting is often tricky; security analysis can be complicated; stock valuations are really dependable only in exceptional cases.” (8)

If corporate accounting in the ’70s, when Ben Graham wrote, was “tricky”, corporate accounting in 2020 is downright shady. My mate is effectively the CFO of a moderate SME. He’s an honest man. He’s spent the last three years tearing his greying hair out as he uncovers deeper and deeper accounting errors by his predecessor and relays them to the owner. How many companies out there are sitting on mis-carried noughts and odd write-downs? This is stuff the market cannot know.

Instead I find myself thinking of the market as the sum of all knowledge and cognitive biases. The sum of wisdom and collective financial thought. Not just knowledge, but also hunches, gambles either way, suspicions and beliefs. You can gamble for or against Tesla or TQQQ. There is likely to be someone out there doing the opposite. Given money and investment follows interest, science imitates and replicates art, we end up at the sum total of belief. We may like to intellectualise and make the company financial data (the science!) echo or challenge the news, but ultimately that is our own bias. The gestalt market doesn’t care. Your beliefs are gristle to it’s mill.

Have a great week,

The Fire Shrink

Fancy a free share? Sign up to Freetrade using this link, and we both get one.

News:

Blogs/ Opinion:

References:

  1. https://www.wsj.com/articles/from-1720-to-tesla-fomo-never-sleeps-11594994422
  2. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/jul/18/tesla-valuation-elon-musk-profit
  3. https://www.forbes.com/sites/michaeltaylor/2020/07/16/tesla-inc-share-price-boom-might-not-be-all-it-appears-to-be/#478ac7272a28
  4. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/tesla-stock-price-street-high-target-piper-sandler-raise-musk-2020-7-1029393184
  5. https://www.investopedia.com/ask/answers/061715/what-qqq-etf.asp
  6. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4358915-qqq-selling-may-only-begun
  7. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Efficient-market_hypothesis
  8. Benjamin Graham. The Intelligent Investor (Revised Edition). 2003. Chapter 12, page 318.
  9. https://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2020-07/p-epr070220.php
  10. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53392148
  11. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-8535085/230bn-commercial-property-crash-Treasury-watchdog-sounds-alarm.html
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53400721
  13. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-8530101/Government-faces-17bn-bill-fix-age-discrimination-pension-blunder.html
  14. https://www.forbes.com/sites/soonyu/2020/07/14/how-one-fintech-unicorn-became-a-fashion-destination/
  15. https://www.forbes.com/sites/nathanlewis/2020/07/10/modern-monetary-theory-goes-mainstream/#5fdf246621e5
  16. https://www.theguardian.com/food/2020/jul/14/nespresso-coffee-capsule-pods-branding-clooney-nestle-recycling-environment
  17. https://southwalesfi.co.uk/2020/07/17/5-tips-to-f-i-r-e/
  18. https://igniting-fire.com/2020/07/17/why-you-need-a-raspberry-pi/
  19. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/07/17/2-year-blogging-anniversary-and-38th-birthday/
  20. https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
  21. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-is-cash-kaput-post-covid-19/
  22. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2020/07/garden-update-summer-2020-six-on.html
  23. http://bankeronfire.com/the-low-effort-high-impact-way-to-do-well-at-work
  24. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/personal-assets-trust-full-year-results.html
  25. https://theescapeartist.me/2020/07/19/every-time-you-see-a-small-business-someone-made-a-brave-decision/
  26. https://asimplelifewithsam.com/2020/07/19/june-review/
  27. https://sassenachsaving.home.blog/2020/07/13/june-2020-net-worth/
  28. https://www.thefrugalcottage.com/30-frugal-living-tips-that-will-save-you-thousands/
  29. https://www.moneymage.net/5-reasons-childfree-and-happy/
  30. https://playingwithfire.uk/covid-19-in-the-uk-its-still-an-emergency/
  31. https://theenglishinvestor.com/and-the-english-investor-is-back/
  32. http://www.cantswingacat.co.uk/2020/07/16/neverspoons-boycotting-wetherspoons/
  33. https://thefifox.wordpress.com/2020/07/16/fail-to-plan-plan-to-fail/
  34. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/07/mello-virtual-welcome-to-the-new-age/
  35. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/07/15/when-can-we-stop-worrying-about-sequence-risk-swr-series-part-38/
  36. https://www.finumus.com/blog/bye-to-let-its-not-1994-any-more
  37. https://indeedably.com/deliberate/

The Full English – User error

Sadly this a bit of a limited Full English, as my long-suffering phone, on which the draft was stored locally, decided on Thursday it would prefer to emulate a house brick. Minimal news links, no wafty text, mainly UK blogs.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

News:

Opinions/ Blogs: (After last week’s craziness it’s a bit briefer today)

References:

  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-07-09/triple-leveraged-tech-etf-has-exodus-after-200-surge-from-lows
  2. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-8506319/House-prices-forecast-fall-5-year-11-2021-Cebr-warns.html?_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.thisismoney.co.uk%2Fmoney%2Fmortgageshome%2Farticle-8506319%2FHouse-prices-forecast-fall-5-year-11-2021-Cebr-warns.html
  3. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/12/precious-metal-the-gold-standard-investment-when-a-crisis-hits
  4. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/07/mystified-tesla-bears-on-wall-street-admit-there-appears-to-be-nothing-that-can-stop-the-stock-right-now.html
  5. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/07/h1-2020/
  6. http://moneybulldog.co.uk/is-it-worth-booking-a-holiday-in-2020-or-even-2021/
  7. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/07/ted-baker-disaster.html/
  8. http://www.cantswingacat.co.uk/2020/07/09/coronavirus-stamp-duty-changes-what-do-they-mean-for-you/
  9. http://bankeronfire.com/the-really-boring-and-highly-effective-way-to-get-rich
  10. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2020/07/10/fancy-fintechs-fishy-fun/
  11. https://medfiblog.wordpress.com/2020/07/10/emergency-fund-2-0/
  12. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/change-investing-gold-mutual-funds-investing-habits-financially-frugal/
  13. https://lifeafterthedailygrind.com/brainwashed/
  14. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-corona-crisis-round-two/
  15. https://monevator.com/the-uks-worst-stock-market-crash-1972-1974/
  16. https://moneygrower.co.uk/second-quarter-2020-dividend-income-importance-of-dividend-cover/
  17. https://playingwithfire.uk/fire-101-financial-independence-retire-early-in-the-uk/
  18. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/07/11/1859/
  19. https://gettingminted.com/returning-to-normal/
  20. https://theescapeartist.me/2020/07/12/youre-only-as-strong-as-your-weakest-link/
  21. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/ishares-msci-world-sri-fund.html
  22. https://monethalia.com/matched-betting-mistakes/
  23. https://firevlondon.com/2020/07/12/how-much-should-you-save/
  24. https://indeedably.com/instinct/

 

 

 

 

 

The Financial Dashboard – June 2020

The goals for June were:

  • Tidy the loft and begin to clear
  • Read three books
  • Update my investment tracker spreadsheet and sync with allocations
  • Explore overpaying mortgage

Checking the assets and liabilities:

Assets JuneLiabilities June

These are taken, as always, from my Beast Budget spreadsheet. My savings rate for this month fell back to 22% thanks to DIY spending, with my total net worth increasing by 1.4%. I’m actually astonished my net worth increased given our spending on the building work (currently at £2k). The usual cash regular savers were topped up (pretty happy about my 5% and 3% now), but my First Direct account is coming to an end, so we’ll start overpaying our mortgage instead.

Goals:

Goal failed: Tidy the loft and begin to clear

This got pushed down the priority list, but remains a goal.

Goal failed: Read three books

Still wading through Intelligent Investor. Currently 350 pages in, but I find myself needing to read it in small chunks to give me time to digest.

Goal achieved: Update my investment tracker spreadsheet and sync with allocations

I’ve moved into the 21st century, and transferred my investment tracker spreadsheet to google sheets, incorporating it’s price lookup function to track my worth in real time. Quite nifty, and I’ll share some images in my Q2 update.

Goal achieved: Explore overpaying mortgage

Having spoken to our mortgage provider we’re going to aim to channel spare cash from our joint account into overpaying our mortgage. It’s a split pot, and part is currently on the standard variable rate while we wait for them both to come out of their teaser rate period. That (much smaller) SVR part is on ~4%, while the rest is on 1.69%. We’re not going to beat that with savings rates, so it makes sense to try to clear down this debt.

Budgets

  • Groceries – Budget £200, spent £237.31, last month £176.91 – A pricey month, with lots of nice meals in cancelling out our usual eating out.
  • Entertainment – Budget £100, spent £56.50, last month £16.50
  • Transport – Budget £460, spent £432.65, last month £237.36
  • Holiday – £150, spent £0, last month £0
  • Personal – £100/ £137.18/ £65.74 – Mainly gifts
  • Loans/ Credit – £0/ £0/ £0
  • Misc – £50/ £724.15/ £71.45 – Building work
  • Fees – £70 /£347.17/ £295.49 – Amazon Prime, some other membership fees

In the garden:

I’ve been keeping up with watering, but everything else has gone to pot, so it’s now a riot. I planted far too many courgettes, squashes and pumpkins, and they have exploded to colonise most of the end of the garden. Ditto tomatoes in the greenhouse, which now looks like a tropical rainforest. Lessons for next year.

Goals for next month:

  • Tidy the loft and begin to clear
  • Read three books
  • Audit regular spending ahead of job change
  • Track building work spending accurately

Happy July everyone, I hope you’re all keeping well,

The Shrink

The Full English Accompaniment – Why a seismic economic shift won’t happen.

The end of the month fell since the last Full English. That means a link-fest below. To save time for all the other writer’s out there I only have a few short thoughts today.

A YouGov/ New Economics Foundation poll published in the Guardian this week demonstrated that 31% of people want to see big changes to the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with only 6% wanting no changes (1). I take any poll or news-worthy statistic with a pinch of salt, especially those espoused to support lefty claims in a lefty rag. However it makes sense, we’ve all experienced big changes through lockdown:

  • Less commuting and more working from home
  • Supply chain changes, less in the shops, more available locally
  • A push to support local businesses
  • Less spending for the sake of it on consumerist tat (because the shops have been shut).

Why not take this opportunity to change things? The Government is already bankrolling huge sectors of the economy. Now is the perfect time to do the big rejig. Perhaps switch towards:

  • renewable, green energy and policies (2)
  • home-working supported by massively improved infrastructure
  • on-shoring industries to support rapid supply chains.

But we won’t. For two reasons.

  1. Inertia (3)
  2. Management.

People do not like dramatic change. Individually we may find it exciting and exhilarating. The potential. The opportunities.

That requires you to get up and do something about it. And we’re fundamentally lazy, stupid, panicky animals. We are much happier doing things the same way we’ve always done than having to learn something new. It requires effort, and motivation. Motivation on a national scale is a challenging construct.

The top level management are also not going to be on board. They have a vested interest in the status quo, it’s how they got there, it’s how they get power/money/fame (delete as appropriate). Why would they risk that?

Plus when have top-down restructures worked well? The Government’s management of the COVID tracking system says enough here.

So, like Soho’s pubs, we’ll soon be back to where we were before. Minus a few tens of thousand dead.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

News:

Opinions/ Blogs:

References:

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/just-6-of-uk-public-want-a-return-to-pre-pandemic-economy
  2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanmichelson2/2020/06/30/how-to-rebuild-the-economy-and-create-jobs-with-clean-energy-innovation/
  3. https://indeedably.com/inertia/
  4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53222765
  5. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/04/a-latin-american-economic-tragedy
  6. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8475855/No-road-tax-cheaper-run-E-car-recharge-finances.html
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/tesla-shareholders-urged-to-oust-elon-musk-over-55bn-pay-deal
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/01/uk-annual-house-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-2012-coronavirus
  9. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/29/central-banks-could-face-political-pressure-to-allow-high-inflation
  10. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/the-future-of-inflation-is-the-biggest-question-in-finance?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-06-28%2Fthe-future-of-inflation-is-the-biggest-question-in-finance
  11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53272411
  12. https://www.moneymage.net/2020-june-savings-report/
  13. https://www.onemillionjourney.com/portfolio-update-19-june-2020-100347e/
  14. https://firevlondon.com/2020/07/04/june-2020-disadvantage-month/
  15. https://awaytoless.com/monthly-spending-june-2020/
  16. https://thesavingninja.com/savings-report-24/
  17. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2020/07/01/june-2020-plus-other-updates/
  18. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2020/07/01/month-end-june-2020/
  19. https://playingwithfire.uk/june-2020-life-spending-and-investment-update/
  20. https://www.thefrugalcottage.com/dividend-income-june-2020/
  21. https://moneygrower.co.uk/june-stock-purchase-the-new-economy/
  22. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/june-20-net-worth-and-monthly-update-22-569037-13570-89-fi/
  23. https://sparklebeeblog.wordpress.com/2020/07/03/monthly-update-jun-2020/
  24. https://pathtolife2.com/2020/07/02/financial-independence-update-june-2020/
  25. https://www.moneyforthemoderngirl.org/i-did-an-antibodies-test-plus-saving-side-income-and-learning/
  26. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2020/07/investment-review-june-2020.html
  27. https://firelifestyle.co.uk/2020/07/01/financial-update-16-june-2020-going-up-up-and-away/
  28. https://earlyretirementinuk.blogspot.com/2020/07/total-portfolio-37113-1688-debt-0-0.html
  29. http://www.cantswingacat.co.uk/2020/06/30/june-income-report/
  30. https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2020/
  31. https://drfire.co.uk/q2-2020-report/
  32. https://igniting-fire.com/2020/06/29/2020-q2-update-long-days-short-weeks/
  33. https://firevlondon.com/2020/06/29/help-wanted/
  34. https://www.firemusings.org/time-to-change-the-car-part-1/
  35. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/dont-faint-its-a-blog-post/
  36. https://thefifox.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/why-everyone-should-start-a-blog/
  37. https://hustleescape.com/anchoring-and-adjustment/
  38. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2020/07/04/8-great-things-about-working-from-home-during-the-lockdown/
  39. https://playingwithfire.uk/hi-im-the-new-girl-expat-financial-mistakes-learnt-the-hard-way/
  40. https://monevator.com/financial-planning-software-wide-of-goal/
  41. https://youngmoneyblog.co.uk/apprenticeships-are-we-failing-disadvantaged-young-people/
  42. http://bankeronfire.com/hunters-farmers-and-financial-independence
  43. https://indeedably.com/better-days/
  44. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/powercell-portfolio-addition.html
  45. https://www.foxymonkey.com/day-trading/
  46. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/07/01/passive-investing-bubble/
  47. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/06/blue-whale-growth-fund-the-next-big-thing/
  48. https://www.muchmorewithless.co.uk/lockdown-spending-habits/
  49. https://www.finumus.com/blog/school-fees-are-now-very-expensive-or-are-they

The Full English – Strength in Unity

This blog is mainly apolitical, and this post is not intended to be politically biased. With that in mind I’ll start this post with a statement:

Boris Johnson will not lead the UK to growth through Brexit.

How did I come to this conclusion?

I’ve been reading a lot of posts through the Way Back Machine on Slate Star Codex (1). I’m late to the SSC party (many thanks Indeedably for the pointer), but there are a lot of parallels of thought. Relevant to this point, is the 2014 essay ‘I can tolerate anything except the outgroup’ (2). It’s particularly pertinent with the current Black Lives Matter movement.

Scott Alexander essentially makes the point that we define ourselves as part of a tribe. Those definitions are often built upon stereotypes. Those stereotypes, that definition, and that tribe provoke more intense feelings than race, ethnicity, gender or sexuality alone. The concept that you are more likely to have intense negative feelings towards someone outside of your, essentially political, tribe has been validated again more recently. A 2017 Stanford study found that political identity is that which we hold most dear (3).

Boris Johnson built his current political success through a combination of his previous irreverent populist persona and alignment with the Brexit campaign. Cummings further drove that campaign and the subsequent political party direction towards populism. Defining themes included that Westminster and the political elite were not hearing the ‘man on the street’, ‘taking back control’ and investing in UK-centric policy (4, 5).

In doing so they created a new political schism. The ‘outgroup’ were centrist and included the existing ‘political elite’. The new division was Leave/Stay, and BoJo was a strong enough persona to unite people behind him. Corbyn, for all the positives he may have, was indecisive on the a difficult question, but one through which people began to define their tribe.

Johnson and Cummings won their battle. They created a large enough tribe with a strong enough identity to not only result in Brexit, but also in the 2019 election win.

But a telltale sign of the future comes from that 2019 election win. Boris Johnson’s manifesto was essentially a bit of everything, sort of business as usual, and without any great rallying points (6). If the great defining point of their tribe up until now has been Brexit, taking back control, railing against the political system and instigating policies for the UK people, where was the definition in this manifesto. Or even currently?

The current cabinet core rose to power through defining themselves as an in-group. Mostly by defining an out-group, and then denigrating them. Lots of ‘they aren’t listening to you’, ‘they didn’t do this’, ‘yes but, no but’. Those defining characteristics are becoming irrelevant. They have reached the top, and now the reasons for the tribe are gone.

Boris Johnson’s response to COVID-19 has been good evidence of this. At times he has been statesmanlike. At others he has been nowhere to be seen. The UK’s outcomes and conduct in fighting COVID-19 will be reviewed in the future, likely with lots of inquiries that result in bugger-all.

Ultimately when the current government has tried to unify the country, in my opinion, he has lacked a methodology. BoJo’s MO is to divide, deny, distract and with Cummings, define a foe.

There are no more internal foes.

Good political leaders are defined by their ability to unite people behind a cause. The greatest, by their ability to unite without criticism or negative connotation. JFK (and to a less public but more politic extent LBJ), Thatcher, Obama… all could bring people together who previously would not have stood so.

The current government has brought people together, but there was no further plan, and the methodology to bring those people together was negative, not positive.

Either we see a re-invention of the Conservative party, into a new political tribe built upon Johnson’s foundation. Or the tribe splinters, to the next strong unifier.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

News:

Opinion/ Blogs:

References:

  1. https://slatestarcodex.com/
  2. https://web.archive.org/web/20200618075102/https://slatestarcodex.com/2014/09/30/i-can-tolerate-anything-except-the-outgroup/
  3. https://news.stanford.edu/2017/08/31/political-party-identities-stronger-race-religion/
  4. https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/06/uk-brexit-guide/482730/
  5. http://www.voteleavetakecontrol.org/briefing_newdeal.html
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2019-50524262
  7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-22/boe-s-bailey-says-he-d-shrink-balance-sheet-before-raising-rates?_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D&amp_js_v=0.1#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-06-22%2Fboe-s-bailey-says-he-d-shrink-balance-sheet-before-raising-rates
  8. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/06/22/andrew-bailey-warns-markets-bank-england-will-reverse-money/
  9. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53148678
  10. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53164304
  11. https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/25/imf-global-financial-stability-markets-disconnect-risks-a-correction.html
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53183504
  13. https://techcrunch.com/2020/06/23/zopa-granted-full-uk-bank-licence/
  14. https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/hdax3m/is_there_a_financial_vehicle_that_i_can_use_to
  15. https://life.spectator.co.uk/articles/are-we-heading-for-hyper-inflation-or-deflation/
  16. https://www.vice.com/en_us/article/qj4ka5/covid-19-broke-the-economy-what-if-we-dont-fix-it
  17. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/06/european-opportunities-trust-whacked-by-wirecard/
  18. https://youngmoneyblog.co.uk/credit-covid19/
  19. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2020/06/quality-companies-sustainable-growth.html/
  20. https://drfire.co.uk/double-down-pivot-or-start-over/
  21. https://sparklebeeblog.wordpress.com/2020/06/25/net-worth-analysis/
  22. https://indeedably.com/inertia/
  23. https://firelifestyle.co.uk/2020/06/26/garden-explosion/
  24. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/the-power-of-mrs-fu-money/
  25. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2020/06/26/priapic-solstice-perambulations-in-pursuit-of-weed/
  26. https://lifeafterthedailygrind.com/is-your-life-getting-better-or-worse/
  27. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-is-your-isa-keeping-up-with-the-joneses/
  28. https://monevator.com/bond-prices/
  29. https://monevator.com/lars-kroijer-onavoiding-covid-19-losers-ultra-low-interest-rates-and-dividend-cuts/
  30. https://theescapeartist.me/2020/06/26/i-hereby-declare-this-pandemic-over/
  31. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2020/06/hedge-gap-in-filling-by-underplanting.html
  32. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2020/06/27/climbing-mount-fi/
  33. https://hustleescape.com/hanlons-razor/
  34. https://www.thefrugalcottage.com/the-next-investing-workshop-is-nearly-here-limited-spaces/
  35. https://medfiblog.wordpress.com/2020/06/26/ethical-investing-fifty-shades-of-green/
  36. http://bankeronfire.com/a-matter-of-time
  37. http://bankeronfire.com/when-your-money-makes-more-money-than-you
  38. http://bankeronfire.com/weekend-bonus-edition-low-risk-corporate-bond-investing