October 2022 – Just how bad is it [house prices] Doc?

When we bought our first home my dad, not one to mince (or even use) words, said not to ever worry about the price. A home was always worth another home. Once you were in, all that mattered was whether you could keep up repayments.

It’s therefore with morbid curiosity that I’m watching the news articles roll around about people not being able to afford their homes. Emma from Norfolk is having to sell and move into shared ownership as her two year fix is up, and she has to pay an extra £200/month (1). There’s been a flurry of questions like below on Reddit from people trying to work out what is the cheapest option for them, or how to afford a new mortgage (2). Chloe from London can’t afford her east end flat with the higher bills, although that might have something to do with changing from a city job to teaching (3). It comes on the back of research from Citizen’s Advice who suggest that 1/4 couldn’t afford an extra £100/month on their mortgage, and half can’t afford £250/month (4). The estate agent says “buy the biggest house you can afford, it can only go up”, and the populace jump how high.

I continue to sound like Cassandra (Burry), but this has been coming down the tracks for yonks. Years. It’s an interest rate reversion to mean people. 0.5% as a base rate is bonkers. 4-6% is a long term average, depending on whether you talk median or mean and time periods. Everyone’s so sodding focused on the next 24 hours, the next week, the next month, they’re not looking further out. How many of these lot do you think stress tested their mortgage to greater than long-term averages? Monevator talked about it twice in the summer (5, 6). I did it last year when we remortgaged. It’s just prudent personal finance. Now they’re all getting their towels wet as the tide comes in. Poor planning means…

Scan the horizon

How bad is this going to get? The BoE reckons two years of recession and unemployment doubling (7). It’s turning off the easy money tap (8). I’m not sure what to think, but am wary of this being a warning shot to prepare people, as has happened with interest rates. They started going up, and then accelerated rapidly. A warning to prepare people for recession might soften the blow of 3-4 years of shit, when you don’t want to tell them straight up. Mixing metaphors, the frogs in the pot and the heat is being turned up. Interest rates, energy bills, higher materials and wage costs are all going to pinch employers (9). Those just-about-managing businesses and the zombie companies supported by cheap loans, they’re all going to go. The recession is going to build lean businesses. I was planning a stag do for next year and noticed a load of local hostelries are shut over the winter, citing energy costs, with vague plans to re-open in the spring for the summer trade.

Back on property, there’s a balance at play between bank mortgage books, house prices, and mortgages as proportion of ownership (in my head a bit like stock float). The BoE is going to tighten stress tests on banks, because they know there will be more repossessions and bank failures if they don’t (10):

So the banks are going to want safer lending and aren’t going to be giving out easy money. Higher interest rates, and tightened lending on stretched LTVs. Higher mortgage rates have a lovely negative feedback loop on the wider economy (11), as the you lose the discretionary £100 in your pocket for spending every month to the bank to cover your new mortgage. Higher mortgage rates also discourage people from buying (12). If you can’t afford to move to a bigger home you stay put – sort of the position we’re in now. Early indicators suggest a reasonable fall in new mortgage approvals – 10% (12). It’s one of the few relatively contemporaneous measures, as most house price indicators are backward looking. Data on average mortgage % agreements are about six months behind current, as they’re fixed in advance, and house prices are similarly slow as they rely on data from completion on the land registry, not current marketing conditions.

Mortgage rates can only go so high. It’s a market. People can’t/ won’t pay silly prices. There are signs rates may be stabilising, at least in the interim. There’s been a dip of some fractions of percent in recent weeks (13, 14). A combo of the BoE base rate rise and having apparently sober politicians in charge. However the cheapest rates are still from small providers, and at low LTVs, showing that risk aversion is still there in banks balance sheets (15).

That’s well founded. This month has seen house prices fall, following on from a fall into October (16, 17). Only a little bit, but it’s a sign the heat is coming off the market. My perpetual Rightmove search is now full of reduced properties, whereas last year is was all Sold Subject To Completion. Lloyd’s caused headlines by speculating on an 8% fall in prices over the next year (18). There’s other figures between 6-15% (19). That’s still above pre-pandemic levels.

I was really worried about a bigger fall, but I’ve updated based on a different consideration. It’s not Fred Harrison’s 18 year property cycle prediction of rises until 2026 (20). It’s about that float/ percentage mortgaged. Mortgage affordability may have reached 9x average wages, house prices may have dipped, new build sales may be falling, but this all only matters if you’re moving and have a mortgage (21). Only 28% of properties are owned with a mortgage (22). 36% are owned outright. For Margot and Jerry, who own their home and have no plans to move, the market matters not. There’s a kicker about people using second properties owned outright as rental income for a pension, but the corresponding rise in rental prices seen over the last couple of years is still a market. If people can’t afford to pay they’ll have to do something else, and the market has to cool. They’ll just have to accept a lower (pension) income from the poor bugger renting from them.

So I don’t think it’s going to be catastrophic. A fall yes. Outliers who overstretched themselves in negative equity, like 2008. A loss in net worth (on paper) for most. A real terms loss of income (BTL) for some, and potentially a further old-age pensions/ income sting. But the market will re-balance. House repossessions are starting to climb, but they’re still at low levels (23, 24). 10% off the top isn’t awful for most who are at better than 75% LTV, and the market might actually be sensible again. Shit houses might not sell for silly money. Look at me being all not-Cassandra-ey.

Why do I even care when I’m sat in an alright house with a 4 years left of a fix at 1.65%? Well our house is just alright, and we want to go bigger to get more space for tat and potential sprogs. We’ll probably move next summer, when things have stabilized a bit and we’re in a better position to sell. The BBC’s calculator reckons if we just re-mortgaged we would be paying £350 extra a month. Doubling our mortgage, and extending the term out to compensate, would add £900/month on. Oof. Luckily we can port, but I better get cracking on promotions to meet the lifestyle bloat.

That’s how this FIRE thing works right?

P.S. Vaguely interesting other stuff

Guardian opinion piece on the impact of cost of childcare on the economy (25). As someone living this I feel the pain.

The Republicans likely did worse in the midterms because more of their voter base died of COVID (26). Anti-vax politicians; play stupid games, win (lose) stupid prizes.

October 2022 Finances

Here’s what my finances done done:

These are taken, as always, from my Beast Budget spreadsheet. I saved 10% of my income in October. Pretty poor that. I’m still fronting up for a load of work expenses, so hopefully that should offset from the figure later in the year. My net worth did sod all, up 0.6%, as I toe the line of £100k net worth. Once again all saving was just into rebuilding my existing emergency funds, though I did look at a Barclay’s 5% Blue Rewards account.


As compared to my four year back-calculated mean monthly spend:

  • Groceries: September £234, October £330, budget £220 – Booo
  • Eating out & Takeaway: Sept £93, Oct £105, budget £50
  • Transport: Sept £220, Oct £280, budget £330
  • Holiday: Sept £330, Oct £10, budget £40
  • Personal: Sept £32, Oct £465, budget £120 – This was buying a couple of large special gifts for close family
  • Health: Sept £52, Oct £52, budget £150
  • Misc: Sept £515, Oct £699, budget £215 – Nursery
  • Work fees: Sept £130, Oct £394, budget £265

In the garden:

Just tidying up now with everything put to bed for winter.


The Shrink


  1. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-norfolk-63568495
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/y70g4i/am_i_better_off_going_onto_a_tracker_mortgage/
  3. https://www.mylondon.news/news/cost-of-living/london-teacher-37-forced-sell-25543958
  4. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11361933/One-four-mortgage-holders-wont-afford-monthly-payments-rise-100-says-Citizens-Advice.html
  5. https://monevator.com/higher-interest-rates-havent-yet-derailed-my-mortgage-strategy/
  6. https://monevator.com/mortgage-rates-rise/
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63471725
  8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63474176
  9. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63566945
  10. https://twitter.com/BruceReuters/status/1574324723047022592
  11. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11348595/Soaring-mortgage-rates-key-UK-recession-risk-economy-stagnates.html
  12. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11373183/BoE-Home-buyer-mortgage-approvals-dive-10.html
  13. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11351701/Mortgage-rates-going-Major-lenders-including-HSBC-Virgin-cut-interest.html
  14. https://inews.co.uk/inews-lifestyle/money/mortgage-rates-fall-uk-homeowners-interest-drop-further-1963617
  15. https://www.moneysavingexpert.com/news/2022/11/cheapest-fixed-mortgage-deals-dip-below-5—-lowest-rate-in-a-mo/
  16. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/house-prices/article-11417517/Average-house-asking-prices-fall-4-100-month-says-Rightmove.html
  17. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/house-prices-fall-for-the-first-time-in-15-months-h62j9h6jf
  18. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63411783
  19. https://www.bbc.com/news/business-63676119
  20. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11327445/There-wont-house-price-crash-says-Fred-Harrison.html
  21. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/nov/14/what-is-happening-to-the-uk-homebuying-and-rental-markets
  22. https://www.uswitch.com/mortgages/mortgage-statistics/
  23. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-11413579/House-repossessions-rise-15-three-months-amid-high-mortgage-rates.html
  24. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/mortgages-repossessions-landlord-evictions-rent-b2222207.html
  25. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/oct/28/rishi-sunak-fixing-british-economy-invest-in-childcare
  26. https://politicalwire.com/2022/11/14/covid-deaths-probably-cost-republicans-the-midterms/

July 2022 – The tiniest violin for Buy-To-Let YouTubers

Do you get blasted with adverts or recommendations on YouTube for ‘creators’ discussing their buy-to-let (BTL) property empire? Usually swiftly followed by a time-limited invite to their course on how to become a BTL magnate yourself? The course which costs >£50, and covers easily google-able things. Yeah those chaps/chapesses. Well they are my new canary in the economic coalmine. They still seem to be tweeting (hawking?) but for how much longer?

How do I distill this view?

Right now things are economically bleak. Here’s a thread from Prof Richard Murphy, who is far more dour on this than me:

Misery and doom (1)

Also available through thread reader (if you don’t have Twitter) here (2).

It’s a fairly erudite consideration of where we are headed. To summarise the summary, inflation is going up due to food, fuel and shipping price rises. Supply-side inflation. This is pushing up the cost of everything due to knock-on effects, at a rate currently ~10%, with an expected peak next year of 18% (3). A lot of people are cutting back on discretionary expenditure (stuff and ting) as they are worried about affording their essential bills like food and heating. This will trigger a recession, if we’re not already in one (4). The due energy price cap increase only protects residential bills, not commercial (see tweet below) (5). Leisure, hospitality and retail companies are likely to fail, triggering unemployment, in turn triggering further poverty. People default on rent and mortgages, worsened by increased mortgage interest rates. The cycle of debt, unemployment, lower spending and higher interest continues until interest rates are higher than inflation and people begin to believe positively in the economy (6).

What’s interesting here is the media optics. Inflation means that people’s wages don’t go as far, so their ‘real pay’ falls. It’s fallen like a stone over the last decade (7, 8). As a doctor I earn about 30% less, accounting for inflation, than I did in 2008 (9). There’s open talk amongst colleagues of striking, which would see us on the picket lines alongside the RMT, barristers, port workers, Royal Mail staff, council bin men, and many others. The focus from the government is on preventing pay rises ‘to stop inflation’.

Man of the people, or Wolfie Smith? (10)

This is a classical tactic of changing the Overton window. If enough media sources tell the people a wage increase will cause them pain through inflation they will believe it. It categorically ignores the fact this is not demand-side inflation caused by lots of people spending lots of money from high wages. It’s supply-side inflation caused by increased costs from… well… let’s start with the pandemic, shipping/ just-in-time supply chain changes, easy fiscal policy, the Ukraine-Russia war, our old friend Brexit, the list goes on. Repeatedly talking about demand-side inflation keeps supply-side inflation out of the public consciousness. It sounds like things politicians can do something about, and plays nicely into the conservative ideological agendas. It avoids the painful fact most of what’s causing this inflation is down to past (sometimes poor) choices, or just shit chance.

What could fix supply-side inflation? Increasing interest rates, decreasing taxes, increasing wages or capping essential costs at much lower levels (1, 11, 12). Basically putting more money in people’s pockets so they can spend, whilst simultaneously trying to sort the supply side issues so that you don’t get demand-side inflation.

There’s an interesting possibilities fork that lies in the ongoing Tory leadership election. Wonderful that it’s happening at a time we need clarity of vision and leadership. Truss and Sunak are talking a big game of anti-wage inflation and anti-union legislation. There’s the suggestion of banning strikes (13, 14). Laws have been implemented over the last decade which make it harder to strike, and easier to break strikes through the use of agency staff – see P&O events (15). Liz Truss, who looks likely to win the vote and be the next PM, has outlined further laws to limit unions (16). This may be posturing for the Tory internal vote. It plays well into the party ideology. It will win her blue votes, and Liz swings with the wind more than a weather-vane.

I worry that she will carry through though. Does she envision herself as a new Thatcher? An economy for economies sake government may argue that the removal of barely profitable zombie companies, just about hanging on with low interest debts serviced, is a good thing. A big ole recession will sort the economic wheat from the chaff. A more open market, with plenty of economic opportunities and less pension/ debt/ commitments to meet. Sod the employees. Sod the unions. My mate wants to buy those assets at 3 pence on the pound, so burn it all down. Build back better. Northern Powerhouse waffle. Further nonsense slogans. For two years until another general election.

You can only cause people so much pain before they revolt. In the 1970s this played out as strikes and the Winter of Discontent, which ironically led to Thatcher’s rise to power (17). Trade union membership has been falling for years, and they are now limited by the laws passed by Thatcher and BoJo (17, 18). There’s an interesting balance here, as with the fall of the red wall and the general shift of political alignment across traditional class boundaries, traditionally unionist working-class individuals have been voting Tory recently. BoJo’s 2019 majority was former labour voters who are those likely to be hit hardest by the ongoing recession, and most likely to unionise (18). Unions are again pushing for higher wages, and we may see a resurgence of membership ahead of protests against government policy (19).

But still, how do people hawking their BTL courses on YouTube figure into this?

First, a final bit of background. Over the last few years the Government have introduced a load of new laws and rules on buy-to-let landlords ostensibly designed to ensure financial stability and protect renters, but practically designed to make it more expensive to be a BTL landlord, get more for the treasury, and drive properties back into private ownership or bigger commercial rental firms (20). This is causing some landlords to raise rents, and forcing other smaller mum-and-dad type set-ups to either inadvertently break the law, or just plain sell up (20, 21). This in turn is driving down the number of properties available to rent (as a lot are selling to residential buyers), and when combined with an increasing population and very limited housebuilding, means the rental market has gone bananas. We’re talking bidding wars, massive rent hikes, queues to view, etc (22).

Now step in our future interest rate hikes. Our current 1.75% (already!) BoE base rate is predicted to hit 3.75% over the next 6-9 months (3). BoE gotta do what it gotta do to deal with that inflation, natch. Some economists are estimating the base rate will need to hit 7% to beat down this inflation round (3). Practically it’s just a reversion to the mean, but it’s a shock for millennials like me who entered the job market in the last couple of decades. The FireShrink household stress-tested our mortgage interest rate in my budgeting spreadsheet up to a theoretical 12%, and then locked in 5 years at 1.65% with a big bank 12 months ago. Excessive maybe, but we were budgeting going from dual income to single whilst still meeting all bills, and various other financial rearguard actions. Monevator advocates a similar stress-testing policy (23). How many did that, especially on BTL mortgages, heavily leveraged or interest-only?

UK interest rates since 1800, courtesy Wikimedia Commons (24)

I am much more cynical on the inflation/ interest rate outlook than Monevator or BoE, probably due to my plan-for-the-worst, aim-for-the-best attitude. I don’t think they’re pricing in just how many people are living paycheque to paycheque, or just how many properties were bought at large salary multipliers on 2 year fixed deals during the pandemic. There’s a lot of people out there who were encouraged to max out their borrowing (Location Location Location). What proportion checked their mortgage repayments at a theoretical 5%?

Which brings us back to BTL. The hawkers tell us that returns from BTL are (a) steady rent, and (b) capital appreciation (the house value rises). Your sums shouldn’t just be about (a), because (b) can bail you out, and house prices always rise, right? So don’t worry that people won’t be able to pay their rent in the recession, you can sell your house for more than you bought it for, and get your capital that way. Except if you can’t, because people can’t pay their mortgages at an unexpected 5+% interest and default/ sell up, and house prices fall.

One of the old adages about investing is you know you’re near the top or in a bubble when your barber or taxi-driver is telling you about the asset. You’ve missed the most profitable climb when you see it advertised on the tube. You’re near the bottom when all of that goes away, and media stories are predominantly negative.

The property market is still rampant, though with signs of exhaustion. The BTL Youtube content creators are still producing, and selling their product. When they stop advertising, it will be a sign of BTL investment capitulation. Beyond that, there be dragons.

July Finances

Checking the assets and liabilities:

These are taken, as always, from my Beast Budget spreadsheet. I saved 14% of my salary in July, as I was repaid some owed cash. Still not great, but starting to return to form. My net worth actually sank as I paid out on credit card for some work expenses which will (unusually for medical work) be expensed in the next few months. For now I’m down about 0.5% and hovering around the £90k market (excluding NHS pension).


As compared to my four year back-calculated mean monthly spend:

  • Groceries: June £270, July £186, budget £220
  • Eating out & Takeaway: June £3, July £60, budget £50
  • Transport: June £711, July £210, budget £330 – Much improved
  • Holiday: Jun £0, July £0, budget £40
  • Personal: Jun £10, July £0, budget £120
  • Health: Jun £50, July £52, budget £150
  • Misc: Jun £141, July £67, budget £215
  • Work fees: Jun £150, July £323, budget £265 – Sigh, this is stuff that won’t get paid as expenses or re-reimbursed. Do other professions spend >10% of their monthly salary to be able to work?

In the garden:

It’s been hot, most things are dried up, but at least my tomatoes, squashes and potatoes are surviving.


The Shrink


  1. https://twitter.com/RichardJMurphy/status/1554735116764827648
  2. https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1554735116764827648.html
  3. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-11134163/UK-inflation-set-peak-18-early-2023-warns-Citi.html
  4. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/26/energy-cap-leap-looks-to-be-moment-when-recession-fears-for-uk-turn-into-reality
  5. https://twitter.com/RoseAndCrownBeb/status/1563451257376763908
  6. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/money-mentor/article/inflation-interest-rates/
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62550069
  8. https://www.ft.com/content/28f2b344-e2a6-4e10-bf4a-c924660eded0
  9. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-doctor-pay-strike-bma-b2110717.html
  10. https://twitter.com/PeterStefanovi2/status/1556367454720462849
  11. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/05/012005.asp
  12. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/07/05/hiking-interest-rates-the-wrong-solution-to-inflation-problem-analyst.html
  13. https://inews.co.uk/news/politics/tory-law-minimum-staffing-strikes-desperate-nonsense-unions-1644221
  14. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/unions-general-strike-industrial-action-ban-b2132802.html
  15. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/jun/23/rail-strikes-tories-agency-workers-rights
  16. https://www.ft.com/content/deab4e48-b22d-4278-b31c-f018a534ddbc
  17. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Winter_of_Discontent
  18. https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-08-02/uk-rail-strikes-tories-can-fight-the-unions-but-they-might-not-win
  19. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-62656500
  20. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/buy-to-let/buy-to-let-crackdown-will-force-landlords-raise-rents/
  21. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/property/article-10547227/Buy-let-landlords-struggle-new-regulations.html
  22. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2022/aug/28/bidding-wars-cash-up-front-and-auditions-inside-britains-broken-renting-market
  23. https://monevator.com/higher-interest-rates-havent-yet-derailed-my-mortgage-strategy/
  24. https://commons.wikimedia.org/wiki/File:UK_interest_rate_since_1800.png

July 2021 – Property Planning

We recently signed up to a new five year fixed mortgage. Five years seemed a good time to fix at 1.65% for, with the spectre of inflation lurking (and potential associated interest rate rises). We’ve spent quite a bit (~£20k) on renovating our current house over the past two years, getting it to how we want it. Over that time local house prices have continued to rise. Wales appears to be bucking the trend, as house prices continue to rise here whilst falling or flatlining elsewhere in the UK (1, 2). Zoopla seems to estimate that our house is worth 10-15% more than we paid for it three years ago. The Rightmove estimates have asking prices for our area rising by 15% in one year (1). This seems an overestimate, and more about ambitious sellers. Either way, we would hope to achieve a 10% increase, and the useful leverage of a mortgage makes the equity my most significant asset.

Received wisdom (or what estate agents tell you) is to buy at the absolute upper limit of what you can afford. Borrow to the hilt, as that outsized leverage will boost your equity return.

When we purchased our current property it was following two previous purchases where we were gazumped/ outbid. For one, a property round the corner from our current home, it went to sealed bids and we narrowly lost. I found out later (through discovery of a mutual friend of the owners) that the ‘winner’ could not meet their bid, pulled out, the sale fell through and the owners remain in the property. The other potential purchase was in a different suburb, 15% more expensive than our current home was priced, and was a proper fixer-upper. We were gazumped by an offer 10% over our asking price bid prior to contract exchange. I am still sore about that.

We set a firm limit on our budget when we were buying this house. The mortgage had to serviceable by a single one of our salaries, just in case. Staring down the barrel of statutory maternity pay I am glad of this self-imposed limit. Estate agents and banks offered us 150% of what we spent, on favourable terms. We looked at some much larger houses in the countryside at the time. Houses that are now worth 20% more thanks to the pandemic rural shift. Will all those people who have moved be happy once they realise the internet doesn’t get better than 10Mbps, no takeaway delivers, and they need to do a 15 minute drive for a pint of milk on a Saturday morning.

Both MrsShrink and I were raised in the countryside (a market town and a hamlet respectively). With the new generation here we will return to our roots at some point. We hope that we haven’t missed the boat on rural house prices; I suspect we haven’t and a rejuvenation of city centres with bars, independent stores and activities will once again lure people back.

A shopping list is already being put together for that eventual purchase. Like Simon Lambert of the This Is Money podcast, stamp duty dissuades us from too many further purchases (3). Without stamp duty we would be tempted towards another five year property step up the ladder. As it is we will probably look for another fixer-upper as a forever home. A lifetime timescale means planning for 20 years in the future, and there the recent IPCC report on climate change has me concerned (4). Everything in the report frankly scares me witless, and I have to hope for the inventiveness, altruism and resourcefulness of the human race, even if others don’t (5, 6). Things like using flooded coal mines to heat homes through geothermal waters (7).

The specific bits of the IPCC report that’s got me thinking refers to sea-level rise and water cycles. Large parts of the UK are only a couple of meters above sea level, and the IPCC report suggests a rise of 0.28-0.55m by 2100 on the minimum best-case climate change projection, 0.63-1.02m in the most likely scenario, and up to 5m in the worst case estimates (Box TS4, Technical Summary)(4). It’s difficult to picture this, and the conventional flood risk calculators from the government (England, Wales, etc) used on building surveys and by insurers don’t seem to take it into account (8, 9). Helpfully Climate Central provide two different models, a coastal screening map and the more complex Surging Seas map which includes multiple models and the latest research based on Antarctic melting (10, 11).

Our future home will need to be >20m above sea level and away from active flood zones. How many of those taking ownership of a new build property as a forever home could anticipate annual flooding in the 2030s due to more extreme weather and sea level rise. We’re also aiming to be as off-grid as possible, for resilience and environmental purposes. Solar PV, ground source heat pumps, micro-hydro, and Tesla Powerwalls are all future dreams. Is this overly extreme? A bit prepper? Would welcome thoughts in the comments.

July’s Finances

Checking the assets and liabilities:

These are taken, as always, from my Beast Budget spreadsheet. I saved around 33% (28% not including pension) of my salary, which will probably be the last of the big savings months as MrsShrink is moving to statutory maternity pay. This months S&S ISA money again went into Vanguard’s ex-UK Dev World Acc Fund. There’s been a bit of churn in my Freetrade account, moving out of meme stocks into more long term holdings – mostly selling the last of my GME/ PLTR. If you fancy a free share, sign up to Freetrade with this link (I also get one).


  • Groceries – Budget £200, spent £396.02, last month £281.22 – This is hugely over. MrsShrink and I sat down and noticed we had been spending at least £150/week in supermarkets, plus smaller shops. We’re not sure what this is on, which is a worry, so it’s going to be rice and beans for a month to see.
  • Entertainment – Budget £100, spent £133.45, last month £219.15 – We’ve been hosting a bit this month, which explains this cost
  • Transport – Budget £250, spent £384.92, last month £445.35 – More car parts. Thanks to my Starling pots and budgeting I’ve still got a little set aside for this
  • Holiday – £150, spent £0, last month £0
  • Personal – £100/ £78.71/ £236.81
  • Loans/ Credit – £50/ £960/ £340 – The main focus this month
  • Misc – £50/ £145.83/ £535.24 – A baby is an expensive investment
  • Fees – £300 /£421.85/ £630.26 – My indemnity fees have increased, so I’ll need to revisit this

In the garden:

Full on harvesting now, with lots of green beans, courgettes, cucumbers and squashes. First tomatoes should be this month, and the potatoes are hardening off in the ground ahead of being lifted. The heatwave caused a lot of my lettuce to bolt, so I’ll need to sow some more. I’ve also got some curiosities (luffa, salad burnet, land cress) going in the greenhouse.

Happy August everyone!

The Shrink


  1. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58203740
  2. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-9893165/House-prices-UK-Asking-prices-fall-time-year-says-Rightmove.html
  3. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/podcast/index.html
  4. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar6/wg1/#TS
  5. https://www.forbes.com/sites/jamesconca/2021/08/16/latest-ipcc-report-predicts-disasteryet-again-but-not-much-will-happenyet-again/
  6. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/aug/13/ipcc-latest-climate-report-hope
  7. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20210706-how-flooded-coal-mines-could-heat-homes
  8. https://flood-warning-.service.gov.uk/informationlong-term-flood-risk/postcode
  9. https://naturalresources.wales/flooding/check-your-flood-risk-by-postcode/?lang=en
  10. https://coastal.climatecentral.org/map/11/-0.1212/51.4848/?theme=sea_level_rise&map_type=year&basemap=roadmap&contiguous=true&elevation_model=best_available&forecast_year=2050&pathway=rcp45&percentile=p50&return_level=return_level_1&slr_model=kopp_2014
  11. https://ss2.climatecentral.org/#9/51.5074/-0.1278?show=satellite&projections=0-K14_RCP85-SLR&level=5&unit=feet&pois=hide

Property Renovation Lessons III

A return to the Property Renovation series, picking up from where I left off in part II considering internal fabric and structure. Here I’ll look at room specific construction, layout and furnishings.

Dry Rooms

I am using this as a catch-all for lounge/ living rooms, dining rooms, bedrooms, offices, corridors… basically any room that doesn’t involve plumbing beyond central heating radiators.

The vast majority of fittings and furnishings in these rooms will be cheap to fix and replace. I’ve covered the walls and floors themselves in part II, but what about the added features. There’s a brief ‘Bluffers Guide’ to period features available here, which I’ll expand on in part (1).


Is the wood panelling surrounding doors, windows and cupboards, which covers where plaster would crack over time through repeated movement. Fancier houses have fancier architrave. Cheap modern renovations or late 20th century houses often have very simplistic architrave. There’s actually very few styles and most have been around since the Victorian era, so it’s easy enough to replace and match. At worst, you can have a specialist company make a pattern and mill you some to match.

Image Credit: Pinterest

Ceiling Roses

Generally seen in older properties, ceiling roses first started appearing in the 1600s in affluent plastered homes as a ceiling decoration for chandeliers (2). They spread through the 18th and 19th centuries, gradually evolving in design such that you can use design elements to date a room if you’re a proper nerd. By the 1850s developments in plaster meant that a ceiling rose did not have to be sculpted by hand, but could be cast in a workshop and sold in large volumes. These days you can get them in polystyrene (why?), plaster or metal (even more why?) in various styles off the shelf. Ceiling roses only really suit a room (IMO) with a 12-foot plus ceiling, but can be a good way to add period features back in quickly.

Image Credit: Victorian Cornice Company


In a similar vein, corbels were originally simple projections from walls which held up structures above. The Victorians took inspiration from medieval builders in designing patterned corbels, which became more decorative (3). They reached a point of being entirely decorative, often non-weightbearing and made of plaster. They can also be found on fireplaces and shelving.

Image Credit: Pinterest


Cornicing and Coving (and Friezes)

Cornicing is the decorative moulding found at the junction of wall and ceiling. Technically cornicing is actually any form of horizontal decorative element that tops a building feature, the word cornice coming from the italian for ledge, and so external decorative moulding is also cornicing (4). We use cornicing interchangeably due to classical description of internal cornice over a frieze, with an architrave below. Cornicing tends to therefore refer to more intricately patterned mouldings, whilst coving is simpler. Cornicing and coving both come in plaster, polystyrene (and GRP/ other plastics) and wooden forms. Repairing damaged plaster cornicing can be pretty difficult, so always worth checking the state of all rooms. In really smart houses, echoing their classical roots, you may find plaster friezes below the cornicing and above the picture rail. Again from the 1850s onwards these could be cast in complete lengths and then fitted on site. Many of these skills have now been lost, and heavy successive coats of paint can hide detail, so finding such features in good condition is a treat.


Image credit: The Victorian Emporium

Dado rails and picture rails

A dado rail sits at around 90cm from the floor, and was originally used in the Georgian period to protect the wall from chair backs during formal dances (5, 6). They fell out of fashion but then returned as a separator for friezes or anaglyptas.

Picture rails have been around since the 15th century, but again we have the Victorians to thank for their widespread use as the lowly proletariat added them to their parlours as a fashionable way of hanging pictures (7). That is still what they’re for. If you have picture rails, please use them, don’t then stick a nail in the bloody wall. As ceilings got lower so did picture rails. As such, there is no correct height, picture rails can be placed anywhere between coving to architrave, but are generally placed 30 to 50cm (12 to 20in) below the ceiling. Picture rails are a great feature for a period home, and painting above in a lighter colour can add to the feeling of height as well as lightening up otherwise imposing rooms (8).

Image Credit: VintagePropertyRestoration.co.uk


Serves the same function as architrave, masking the gaps between edges of plaster and floorboards which are likely to move. Skirting began to be used in the Georgian period, but again became popular in the Victorian era (9). The more grand or ornate the house, the taller and more intricate the skirting, before gradually becoming smaller again up to the 1980s. Much like architrave, skirting now comes in plastic, softwood or metal forms, and can be made to order to match previous designs. It’s worth pointing out the difference with wood panelling, traditionally in the UK called wainscot, a much older technique pre-dating plaster. This dates from when buildings were stone, and wood panels were added to reduce draughts and keep the room warmer. Later they became decorative. Out of fashion currently, and you’ll need a carpenter to repair (10).

Image Credit: Pinterest

All of the above furnishings and fittings can be added back in with care and attention to detail (8, 11). The ’70s has a lot to answer for in terms of removal of features, but equally the current pre-occupation with Victorian features may well go out of fashion. We’ve viewed our position as custodians, and tried not to remove features of our property as we’ve renovated, even if we don’t like them.

Fireplaces and chimneys

For as long as there have been dwellings, humans (great apes) have had fireplaces. These developed from central cooking fires, to hearths, to the inglenook. These were enclosed hearth areas off a main room, which incorporated a cooking area, a main fire, and sometimes bread ovens etc (12).

Image Credit: Wikimedia

These enclosed hearths were gradually incorporated into the room while retaining the grate or back. Cast iron firebacks were used to retain and radiate heat. Decorative surrounding were added in the Louix XIV, XV and XVI periods, extending into the Georgian period with more classical plaques or motifs (13). In the Victorian period developments in mass metalworking allowed for cast iron insets for fireplaces (14). These, and stylistic developments are most commonly seen today. Due to the gradual development of styles over time it’s possible to date most fireplaces to a rough decade, like the Victorian one below (13, 14). Reclamation yards usually have a good selection of styles, and reproductions are available. 

Image Credit: FireplaceAntiques.co.uk

From the Edwardian era through the Art Deco period fireplaces were more commonly concrete and tile, and these can be harder to repair though replacements are available (15). The first electric fireplace came along in 1995 (just an overgrown electric radiation to me), and modern fireplaces are usually more about home interior design than serving as a traditional focal point. Make sure to match your new fireplace to the correct era. 

Image Credit: c20fireplaces.co.uk

A significant caveat and kicker when looking at properties to purchase or for renovations is around chimney breasts. These are the (usually) brick structures surrounding the fire and flue up to the chimney. They support the weight of the chimney above, and are often integral to the structural design of the property (16). Where fireplaces and chimney breasts have been removed for design or space purposes always check this has been done to regulations and by someone who knows what they’re doing. Because of the weight carried above it would be usual to take the whole chimney out, not just a ground floor section. If this is the case then permanent support for the chimney above will need to be inserted, usually designed by a structural engineer (17). Beware the cowboy!

Wet Rooms


For some, the place to brush your teeth and shit, hopefully not at the same time. For others, a place of tranquil relaxation. Interior design styles with bathrooms seems to change yearly, so I’ll only briefly touch on things here. The Victorians, they obsessed with cleanliness, again kicked us off in the modern understanding of bathrooms once they mastered hot water, cast iron baths, plumbing and Mr Crapper added his flourish. Although I must admit, if I get the resources I’d go full caldarium/ frigidarium.

Image Credit: Hevac-Heritage.org

These spread after WW1, though your lowly commoner only really got indoor toilets and bathrooms post-WW2. Early versions had a water heater (often gas) next to the bath. During this period most fixtures were cast iron or ceramic, and decoration was often in the form of tiling. The claw foot freestanding bathtub began to disappear due to space constraints, and because they’re a pain to clean around (18). Matching sets became fashionable, and with the uptake of coloured plastics we reached the avocado bath era (see part 1). Finally, in the 90s and 00s everything went sanitary white, for that sterilised clinical slab look.

Badekar og varmtvannsbereder

Image Credit: Norsk Folke Museum

Lightweight plastics and modern manufacturing methods mean there’s a smorgasbord of choice. Modern style appears to be going more slimline – low rise freestanding showers and built in toilets. Not my personal taste as they can be a pain to DIY repair. Lots of classical designs are also being re-used or updated (19). Even the bloody avocado bath (20). So don’t rip it out just yet, the design world is your oyster.


Tied in with the hearth and central room for most of history, the spread of kitchens to the masses also came with the Victorians. This time as they cleared people from shared living slums to their own private homes. This coincided with wood or coal-fired stoves, which were much more efficient and quicker than open fires (21). These were developed to run on gas (1826) and electric (1912). Victorian kitchens were utilitarian workspaces, often with a Belfast or butler sink in a separate scullery (for wet cleaning work) and foodstuff stored in a pantry. The late C19th and early C20th saw these spaces opened up and incorporated (you can’t fit a scullery in a miner’s terrace). They’ve gradually become cleaner, sleeker and with more accoutrements as time has gone on. From a renovation point of view kitchens can soak up money, and you largely get what you pay for. A quick repaint and re-tile may be a few hundred, a second hand or cheap kitchen may cost you £1-3k, decent high end kitchens run to tens of thousands. Buyers choice.

Image Credit: John Desmond/ Veterans United

Renovation potential

How many thousands of articles are there on assessing renovation potential? Everyone wants the short cuts. So now you’ve read my rough guide to features here’s some tips:

  • Beauty is in the eye of the beholder

Most people (I think) will at some point want to make a stamp on the property they own. A lot of these stamps are highly personal taste. What you think is renovation, updating or beautifying may not be what a buyer or renter wants to see. Know your target: is this your forever home, a five-year stepping stone, or a BTL. 

  • Know the local ceiling price

Leading on from the above, there’s no point buying a three-bed terrace and then throwing in a £30k kitchen, extension, basement and loft conversions if after all that it’s only worth £100k. (Caveat: does not apply if you consider it your forever home). Go on Zoopla or Rightmove and look at the sold house prices for a feel for maximum value (22). For BTLs there’s a good calculator at South St made by one of the r/UKPersonalFinance people (23)

  • The ugly work can add the most, but might add nothing

Before thinking about painting, that new bathroom, the six-burner rangemaster, do the shitwork. Make the house warm, dry, secure and free of damp. Structural defects may be hidden and can cost huge amounts to correct with no direct gain to property value. Central heating, rewiring and re-plastering are messy jobs, but will almost always add value. The jobs which need special skills and are the most difficult are often the ones that add the profit (22, 24, 25).

  • Know your limits

If you’ve never held a paintbrush then raising the roofline for extra head space in that loft conversion is probably a bit too much. Be prepared to leave stuff to professionals (26). One man with the right tools could do something in two days that would take you two weeks. Brickwork, structural work, roofing, plumbing, and electrics all require specialist skills and kit. Plastering, carpentry and painting are all better with experience. 

  • Get it certificated 

Linked to the above, tradesmen will be insured and appropriately qualified. Many property changes require certification. The sob pages of the tabloids are filled with stories about eejits wasting money (27, 28). Get multiple quotes. Get planning permission. Get it signed off and keep the certificate somewhere safe (29).

Final Points

Here’s three take homes if you can’t be bothered remembering all that:

  1. Know your worth – that overtime at your day job may be a better return on investment than DIY
  2. Know the value – of the local property, and how long you’re willing to hold it for to calculate cost/ benefit/ return on investment
  3. Get multiple quotes, use reputable traders, get the certificates

Hope that was useful!

The Shrink


  1. https://www.houzz.co.uk/magazine/a-bluffers-guide-to-identifying-period-features-stsetivw-vs~79477800
  2. https://www.prickettandellis.com/period-features-a-rose-by-any-other-name/
  3. https://www.patterncut.com/history-of-corbels-medieval-modern-architecture.html
  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cornice
  5. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dado_rail
  6. https://www.victoriansociety.org.uk/advice/plaster-mouldings-and-dado-rails
  7. https://www.1900s.org.uk/1900s-parlour.htm
  8. https://www.vintagepropertyrestoration.co.uk/blog/55-picture-rail
  9. http://allenpartnership.co.uk/a-brief-history-of-skirting-boards/
  10. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Panelling#Wainscot_panelling
  11. https://www.victoriansociety.org.uk/advice/plaster-mouldings-and-dado-rails
  12. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inglenook
  13. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/how-to-choose-a-fireplace-and-identifying-historical-design/
  14. https://www.fireplaceantiques.co.uk/history-of-antique-fireplaces
  15. http://www.c20fireplaces.co.uk/rfpi
  16. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Chimney_breast
  17. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/how-to-remove-a-chimney-breast/
  18. https://www.brownstoner.com/architecture/victorian-bathroom-history-plumbing-brooklyn-architecture-interiors/
  19. https://www.realhomes.com/design/traditional-bathroom-ideas
  20. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/interiors/avocado-bathroom-suite-now-back-fashion/
  21. https://www.johndesmond.com/blog/design/a-brief-history-of-the-kitchen/
  22. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/how-to-renovate-for-profit/
  23. https://south.st/test/
  24. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/20-sure-ways-to-add-value-to-your-home/
  25. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/renovation-assessing-the-potential/
  26. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/diy-what-to-leave-to-the-professionals/
  27. https://www.mirror.co.uk/money/months-work-thousands-spent-added-13191459
  28. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-6303067/Woman-forced-tear-dream-home-spent-150-000-renovating.html
  29. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/08/the-five-home-improvements-most-likely-to-blow-your-budget/

Reasons to be fearful and cheerful in 2020

So a new year, a new decade, has arrived. What could lie ahead, and how could it impact your goals? In general I try to avoid the news and speculation on this blog. For ease of digestion I’ve condensed down my thoughts on current risks and boons on the financial horizon into this one post. As one man’s rubbish is another man’s treasure I’ve not separated the positive and negative, and any old hack can predict doom, so in a linked follow-up to this post I’ll also offer some ‘Ninja-style’ thought experiments. I encourage you to play out the options in your head, thoughts and comments welcome.

  • The whole damned B***it saga is nearly over.

Or at least we can see a light at the end of the tunnel. Is that light a rose-tinted halycon glow of coal-fired power stations and a Wolseley in every council-semi car port? Or is it a bright new future of an independent UK driven by strong economic growth and an embrace for emerging technologies? Is it both? Does it matter?

It is re-assuring that following the general election there was a general upswing in economic confidence in the UK, typified by the surge in the pound (1). But since the heady heights of $1.34/5, we’ve seen the pound whipsaw depending on what BoJo is saying, whether Trump is inadvertently warmongering, and the ECB/ BoE’s machinations (2). My top line take is companies hate uncertainty, and at least the current government will provide some certainty, even if it’s distasteful to some quarters. Whether you’re pro-Brexit like the DIY Investor UK, or anti like TI at Monevator, at least we can all agree that it’s time to get the debacle moving (3, 4).

  • World markets continue on an unprecedented bull run

People keep predicting recessions. They’ve not happened. Last year saw gains on the US stock market (S&P 500) of 28% (5, 6). Alright some of that was recouping the losses of the December 2018 ‘correction’, but that’s still massive. In fact it was the best return since 2013, with new record highs.

Help from the US Federal Reserve through cheap cash, and new tech IPOs/ expansion are the fuel for this growth. Trade wars, warnings of global economic slowdowns, Brexit and the inverted yield curve have all been unable to stop this juggernaught. The Stoxx Eurozone 600 also a 23% jump, with the Shanghei Composite close on 22%, and the Nikkei 225 a relative laggard at 18% (6). The FTSE was the only fly in the ointment at 12% (7). Still impressive by most standards. The CBOX Volatility Index (^VIX), a measure of fear in the market where spikes are usually associated with sell-offs, started 2020 well down on 2019. Much of 2019 was spent between 16-22, where fear levels greater than 15 suggest traders think a recession is imminent. 2020 started around 12-14 (8). Traders see people crying wolf about recessions, and are starting to ignore them. Investment through low-cost index funds may have removed the human behavioural volatility from the market, whilst consistent developments in technology and other sectors mean that gains in one area offset slowdowns in others (9, 10). Is the permanent bull charge the new normal?

  • Interest rates remain low meaning cheap credit and mortgages

Interest rates were cut in the wake of the 2008 recession, and they’ve remained there and it looks like they’ll stay low for the forseeable future (11, 12). The BoE base rate is currently 0.75%, and didn’t change at the last vote (12). In the US mortgage rates are also falling, though for different reasons (13). This is crap for cash savings, but fantastic for mortgages which due to the ongoing competition in the market, remain at or around record low rates (14). The house price to earnings multiples are also falling, and the combination of cheap mortgages, a bit of government certainty and (slightly) more affordable prices means the number of mortgage approvals is going up (15, 16). For us on the street this means cheaper mortgages and cheaper credit cards.

  • Monetary policy is limited by current low interest rate

Interest rates have been kept low over the last decade to continue stimulus (along with quantitative easing) to the sluggish economy. Here’s a 7 minute video on how interest rates influence inflation and public spending as the basis of monetary policy (17):

Low interest rates discourage cash savings and encourage spending (18). But the economy remains beset by headwinds, and at this point in the (supposed) economic cycle we should have high interest rates that can be cut again when the next recession comes. Instead quantitative easing and low interest rates have remained. Where can economic policy go to spur further growth? Some countries have started using negative interest rates to promote spending (19). Most notable is Japan, which has had negative interest rates for decades, with minimal effect on growth (20, 21). Has Japan led the way into a brave new world of shackled economic policy and stagnant growth?

  • Flatlining property prices

This could be something to cheerful about, or fearful about, depending on your point of view. Dan at Pursue Fire discussed in this month how house prices appear to have rebounded somewhat since the December 2019 election (22). This is Money also did a useful piece, looking at what different organisations are predicting for the coming months on property prices (23). The general consensus is that house price growth will remain ~2%, roughly in line with inflation. Lots of reasons behind this, which can be broadly summarised as: very high house price to earnings ration (-ve effect on sales due to affordability), low mortgage interest rates (+ve effect on sales due to affordability), government meddling with Help to Buy and LISAs (+ve effect on sales and inflation of prices), government meddling with Buy-to-Let rules (-ve effect on prices through landlords offloading property), changes in immigration including Brexit (-ve effect on house prices in South East due to decreased demand), and the coming of age of interest only mortgages (unknown so far). Bad news for those whose nest egg/ pension is the growth in equity in their property, good news for anyone just starting out or upsizing. All those wannabe property developers better pack up their bags, as the days of 10% year on year growth may well be gone (24).

  • Corporate and private debt is reliant on low interest rates

A monetary policy of low interest rates has not only meant cheap mortgages, but also cheap debt for consumers and industry. Those 0% interest credit cards are tempting. So tempting UK household debt has risen 11% in the last two years (25). One could argue that recent lifestyle inflation/ keeping up with Jones’ has been financed with cheap debt, but these stories are never that simple. If you deep dive Hire Purchase (PCP) and ballooning student loans (not low interest rate) are the majority of the story (26). What happens to all this debt if the interest rates start to rise?

Looking beyond private debt, there was some debate in media channels about the rise of ‘zombie firms’ – companies where turnover and profit were persistently low and with high leverage (27, 28). These firms have hung about because low interest rates enable them to survive, whilst in the good old days a recession would have killed them off. They drag down productivity and GDP, crowd out markets and generally stink up the place like a good zombie but with less bitey action. They haven’t gone away and probably constitute 10-15% of global companies (29). The IMF has spoken of almost 40% of the debt in the eight world leading economies would be too expensive to service in a recession (30). These crappy companies and their dodgy debt remain a sword of Damocles hanging over the market (31).

  • Many financial products offering high returns or underlying current strategies are untested

There’s a whole raft of financial instruments which can be filed under ‘working now’, promising and at times attaining strong returns, which have never seen an economic downturn. That’s either because they’ve gone mainstream since 2008, or they’ve been developed since then. We’ve got no idea what will happen to them. In this bucket of uncertainty I chuck:

  1. P2P lending – Connecting those investing with those borrowing with minimal middle men (32). I’ve spoken before about my concerns of default risk in P2P. There’s analyses that suggest P2P resembles subprime mortgages (32). The default rate at Zopa was 4.52%, and 5% doesn’t look unreasonable. The services take a percentage to cover for these defaults, but what happens when the default rates start to rise in an economic downturn. Zopa has stress-tested again BoE modelling, so here’s hoping they’re doing enough (33, 34).
  2. Buy to let, particularly student flats and hotels – As investors look for returns and the BTL allowances are tightened, those seeking returns have lent on students. Much easier to be a student landlord than a slum landlord. Increasing numbers of students, particularly from overseas, have been seeking better quality accommodation than the traditional damp bedsit. This has driven a property boom, with plenty of agencies helping you to invest in a purpose built flat providing 7-15% returns (35, 36, 37). University cities around the UK have seen massive blocks of flats go up to house students (35, 38).  Problem is students don’t want to live in them as they’re too expensive, and there’s now market oversupply (39, 40). I don’t blame them. I wouldn’t want to spend £600+/month for a studio flat with shared kitchen. My student accommodation was £280/month with an ensuite. That’s £300 for beer! So the companies are going under and investors are losing out (41). Hotel room investment appears to be aimed at a similar target market (42). 10% returns in bricks-and-mortar away from the scary stock market. Investment in this sector is growing despite a string of high profile collapses and vague references to ‘ponzi-schemes’ (43, 44). Frankly I file the whole idea under ‘too good to be genuine’.
  3. PCP car sales My pet hate, I advise everyone to read the FCA findings and tell me how this is not a car crash waiting to happen (45). Default rates remain low, but commission-based salesman are racing to the bottom of the lending pool. Everyone who wants a flash car has one, people aren’t buying but the pressure for sales remains (46). There’s already talk it could be the next PPI, but people are signing themselves up to this wittingly (47). Even when they admit they don’t understand (48). I’ll stick to my ropey old shitbox.
  4. Crypto – I’m not even going to try and speculate on that rollercoaster.

The simple answer here is stick to tried and tested financial mechanisms.

  • China, the engine room of recent growth, has an untested banking sector

Bit of a funny communist state China. The majority of the banks remain state-owned, and there’s a national culture of saving. They therefore rarely share worries about the sector. Beyond the state banks are ‘shadow banks’, which have funded much of the real estate development in recent years (49, 50). The lending those banks were built on was fuelled and funded by China’s hyperbolic growth. Now that growth is slowing, risky business ventures are failing, and there’s been a spate of bank bail-outs (50). Stress tests suggest this is the tip of the iceberg, with the People’s Bank of China’s annual stability report suggesting 586 out of 4,379 banks are at high risk of collapse (51).

  • Green and sustainable technology and funds are going mainstream

The diversification and ease with which individuals can self-invest, coupled with global recognition of the climate emergency, is fuelling a massive growth in green and sustainable funds. Millennials aren’t consulting a financial advisor and then putting cash in an active fund containing oil and tobacco, they’re using Nutmeg or Wealthsimple and selecting green companies (52). It feels like a tipping point has been reached when even companies like Vanguard bow to pressure (53, 54). Growth follows investment, and I hope the pressure will mean a societal industrial shift towards sustainable approaches. Are we seeing the re-invention of our economy, the greatest shift since the industrial revolution?


  • 2019-nCoV, a.k.a Wuhan Virus. 

To be clear, there are lots of coronaviruses, they are a source of the common cold. The novel coronavirus which emerged in Wuhan is a nasty bastard. I’ve been chatting to my friends who work in infectious diseases and they’re worried. To them it is Wuhan virus, and that is how I’ll refer to it. Why is it so bad:

  1. It’s seriously infectious – Conservative modelling suggests a basic reproductive number (R0) of 2.68, i.e. every infected person spreads it to 2.68 others (55, 56). I’ve seen less conservative estimates at 4. Epidemic doubling time is 6.4 days. Growth within the population is exponential. For reference most pandemic and endemic infections have R0s between 2-5, including Spanish Flu (57).
  2. It can be asymptomatic or mild – Control measures such as those used for Ebola, SARS, MERS etc were effective because once someone contracted the infection they became unwell, and they could be separated out and isolated. Their symptoms allowed isolation during the infectious period. Wuhan virus appears to be infectious while asymptomatic, meaning people can spread it without knowing (58).
  3. It hits the mortality sweet spot – It appears to kill around 1-2% of those diagnosed (probably much lower with asymptomatic cases). Ebola, SARS, MERS etc were all more deadly, but this reduces a pathogens ability to spread quickly and reduces the host reservoir. Wuhan virus kills the old and infirm, at a rate that maintains a large host population (59, 60).
  4. China has almost certainly hidden the true numbers – People in Wuhan are having quick burials, others aren’t being tested, and the fact Wuhan virus can be mild and asymptomatic suggests the spread could be significant worse than reported (61, 62).


People are already speculating on the effects of Wuhan Virus on the stock market (63, 64, 65). My friends suggest this is the next Spanish Flu, and we’ll see tens of thousands of deaths globally amongst the infirm and elderly (66, 67). We live in interesting times.

So that’s it, and I haven’t even touched on Trump or the Middle East (68). Making forecasts is a fools game, the only surety of which is that you’ll smack yourself for what you said (69). We suffer from huge psychological biases when thinking about the future (70). Is a consistent bull run the new normal, or will we see another great depression (71)? Join my in my next post to think through the options.


  1. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/general-election-result-pound-dollar-euro-exit-poll-tory-boris-johnson-a9244661.html
  2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50821583
  3. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/12/we-are-leavingat-last.html
  4. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-brexit-bites/
  5. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/12/31/the-stock-market-boomed-in-2019-heres-how-it-happened.html
  6. https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/stocks/sp-500-2019-annual-return-for-year-best-since-2013-2019-12-1028790061?
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50955629
  8. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/v/vix.asp
  9. https://www.forbes.com/sites/kenrapoza/2020/01/22/bull-market-without-end-amen/#146f30422637
  10. https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-mixed-on-last-day-of-exceptional-year-11577787736
  11. https://www.forbes.com/sites/billconerly/2020/02/01/interest-rate-forecast-remaining-low-throughout-2020/#4aa5548b5395
  12. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-7947231/Interest-rates-kept-hold-0-75-Mark-Carneys-rate-decision.html
  13. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/01/30/mortgage-rates-sink-their-second-lowest-levels-three-years/
  14. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7723941/Ten-year-fixed-mortgage-rates-hit-new-record-low.html
  15. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/27/uk-banks-mortgages-interest-rates
  16. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/housing-market-england-mortgage-approvals-lending-a9311706.html
  17. https://youtu.be/4XYlQ_HbDTw
  18. https://www.economicsonline.co.uk/Managing_the_economy/Monetary-policy.html
  19. https://www.theguardian.com/business/grogonomics/2019/oct/29/negative-interest-rates-mad-economic-science-or-the-logical-next-step
  20. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/japan-negative-interest-rates-and-the-death-of-monetary-policy-202001021535
  21. https://foreignpolicy.com/2019/11/13/japan-economy-west-us-economic-future-trump-topsy-turvy/
  22. https://pursuefire.com/monthly-update-16-december/
  23. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7801417/What-property-prices-Britain-2020-onwards.html
  24. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7943741/House-prices-174-years-70-year-period-got-cheaper.html
  25. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-50671834
  26. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddebtingreatbritain/april2016tomarch2018
  27. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/06/zombie-firms-a-major-drag-on-uk-economy-analysis-shows
  28. https://fortune.com/2019/09/02/why-zombie-companies-are-on-the-rise-and-could-pose-a-threat-to-the-u-s-economy/
  29. https://www.businessinsider.com/zombie-firms-statistics-on-low-interest-rates-and-leveraged-loans-2018-10?r=US&IR=T
  30. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/04/debt-will-kill-global-economy-pensions-ageing-population
  31. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/01/14/trillion-dollar-corporate-debt-mountain-threatening-worlds-economy/
  32. https://www.investopedia.com/terms/p/peer-to-peer-lending.asp
  33. https://www.moneyobserver.com/how-will-p2p-fare-during-downturn
  34. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/12/05/created-to-democratise-credit-p2p-lenders-are-going-after-big-money
  35. https://www.ft.com/content/770992fc-d3d6-11e9-a0bd-ab8ec6435630
  36. https://www.rw-invest.com/student-property-investments/
  37. https://www.endsleigh.co.uk/blog/post/why-property-investors-are-buying-student-accommodation/
  38. https://www.studyinternational.com/news/student-housing-uk-europe/
  39. https://moneyweek.com/503652/investing-in-student-property-doesnt-stack-up
  40. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/buytolet/article-5620311/How-invest-student-property-buy-let.html
  41. https://www.ft.com/content/1db98d5c-98c5-11e9-9573-ee5cbb98ed36
  42. https://sterlingwoodrow.com/hotel-room-investment/
  43. https://www.savills.co.uk/research_articles/229130/274445-0
  44. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-50350281
  45. https://www.fca.org.uk/publication/multi-firm-reviews/our-work-on-motor-finance-final-findings.pdf
  46. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46774053
  47. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/10/05/car-financing-loans-could-erupt-next-ppiscandal/
  48. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7546811/Nine-ten-motorists-confused-car-finance-options.html
  49. https://www.greenleft.org.au/content/paper-dragons-will-china-cause-next-financial-crash
  50. https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3044148/chinas-banking-debt-crisis-ticking-time-bomb-must-be-defused-urgent
  51. https://www.fxstreet.com/analysis/theres-a-major-banking-crisis-unfolding-in-china-202001080837
  52. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2019/02/16/millennials-push-green-bonds-mainstream/
  53. https://www.ft.com/content/7d64d1d8-91a6-11e9-b7ea-60e35ef678d2
  54. https://www.ft.com/content/5b6caa5e-bd4f-11e9-89e2-41e555e96722
  55. https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
  56. https://www.ft.com/content/ed3fb63e-41ce-11ea-bdb5-169ba7be433d
  57. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Basic_reproduction_number
  58. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/study-reports-first-case-of-coronavirus-spread-by-asymptomatic-person/
  59. https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-020-00236-9
  60. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/30/opinion/wuhan-coronavirus-epidemic.html
  61. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/01/25/quick-burials-lack-tests-raise-fears-cornavirus-outbreak-much/
  62. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/jan/26/coronavirus-could-infect-100000-globally-experts-warn
  63. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51239745
  64. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-51262450
  65. https://www.ccn.com/chinas-economy-on-the-brink-as-coronavirus-fears-intensify/
  66. https://khn.org/morning-breakout/who-to-reevaluate-global-emergency-designation-as-coronavirus-spreads-at-rate-of-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic/
  67. https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/01/coronavirus-flu-healthcare-symptoms/
  68. https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/28/these-4-world-events-could-kick-off-a-market-crash.aspx
  69. https://rpseawright.wordpress.com/2020/01/02/forecasting-follies-2020/
  70. https://www.collaborativefund.com/blog/the-psychology-of-prediction/
  71. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jan/17/head-of-imf-says-global-economy-risks-return-of-great-depression

The Full English – Sparking joy

What am I blathering on about this week?

We’ve been watching a lot of Marie Kondo on Netflix in our house. If you’ve not seen it, it’s a bit of a weird sell. A tiny japanese woman with a penchant for organising sorts out hoarders houses. Here she is (1):

Now she’s made a profession (and massive cash) out of perfecting tidying up. She’s sold millions of books, and sparked plenty of knock-offs (2). Her key points are fairly simple, and revolve around attacking things in a certain order, with a future goal in mind, and only keeping items which ‘spark joy’ (3). There’s no point having 20 photo albums you never look at. Keep one or two collated versions somewhere you can see them regularly, etc…

This floats pretty close to minimalism for me. It’s an easy to digest, more accessible, less elite version (4). After all, minimalism aims to:

  • Eliminate our discontent
  • Reclaim our time
  • Live in the moment
  • Pursue our passions
  • Discover our missions
  • Experience real freedom
  • Create more, consume less
  • Focus on our health
  • Grow as individuals
  • Contribute beyond ourselves
  • Rid ourselves of excess stuff
  • Discover purpose in our lives (5)

It’s a counter-cultural push against the consumerism of general life (6). And as such it sits well with the FI community, in the general ‘buy less shit’ stakes. I’ve always liked the idea of minimalism. It fits a Manhattan loft/ bourbon and grubby nightclubs life-direction which is never likely to be achieved. I’m just fairly shit at it. I own a lot of stuff. Much of the stuff is fairly tatty. We’ve lived like students for 10 years and many items have been bought as ‘do-fers’; they’ll do for now. 5-10 years on they’re still doing. I’ve been de-cluttering over the last six months, but I’m still left with a sense that a lot of stuff with remain. I will never be minimalist. Marie Kondo tells me it’s okay if my stuff sparks joy. So my garage full of tools which spark joy when I have the right tool for the job is okay. The ‘do-fers’ don’t spark joy, so they’ll be replaced with items which do. Ultimately I think that boils down to an intentionalism approach to items, as we try to be more intentional with the choices we make in our lives. Why fill your life with shit that makes you miserable.

“Wealth consists not in having great possessions, but in having few wants.” -Epictetus

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (affiliate links):

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.



  1. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marie_Kondo
  2. https://konmari.com/
  3. https://www.goodhousekeeping.com/home/organizing/a25846191/what-is-the-konmari-method/
  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minimalism
  5. https://www.theminimalists.com/minimalism/
  6. https://www.becomingminimalist.com/what-is-minimalism/
  7. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-7140919/Can-modify-car-finance-dangers.html
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jun/26/uk-economy-cliff-edge
  9. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48820573
  10. https://www.theguardian.com/science/2019/jul/05/bury-bodies-along-uks-motorway-to-ease-burial-crisis-expert-suggests
  11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-your-money-48776454
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48776125
  13. https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/hargreaves-lansdown-just-removed-nick-085637525.html
  14. https://www.cityam.com/freetrade-to-close-7m-in-second-crowdfunding-round/
  15. https://monevator.com/passive-fund-of-funds-the-rivals/
  16. https://monevator.com/defined-benefit-to-defined-contribution-pension-transfers/
  17. https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2019/
  18. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/07/selling-vodafone-lessons-learned-from-one-of-my-first-defensive-value-investments.html/
  19. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/06/ftse-100-ftse-250-valuations.html/
  20. https://theescapeartist.me/2019/06/25/why-capitalism-is-better-for-your-pet-dog-than-communism/
  21. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/06/26/does-a-4-percent-withdrawal-rate-survive-a-60-year-retirement/
  22. https://cashflowcop.com/when-to-buy-a-house-if-you-have-student-loans-debt/
  23. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/how-to-drastically-cut-expenses/
  24. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/06/aquila-european-renewables-trust-new.html
  25. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/07/half-year-portfolio-update.html
  26. https://indeedably.com/independence/
  27. https://indeedably.com/indeedably-meta-redux/
  28. https://indeedably.com/inflection-point/
  29. https://firevlondon.com/2019/07/01/doubling-party/
  30. https://firevlondon.com/2019/07/03/june-2019-q2-review/
  31. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/07/07/june-2019-other-updates/
  32. https://ditchthecave.com/30s-and-40s-financial-independence/
  33. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/june-19-net-worth-and-monthly-update-11-514218-9687/
  34. https://thesavingninja.com/twelve-months-later-savings-report-12/
  35. https://www.msziyou.com/true-love-never-smooth/
  36. https://awaytoless.com/monthly-spending-june-2019/
  37. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/07/05/cashback-success-saving-30-100-on-car-insurance/
  38. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/07/04/wild-strawberries-and-wild-gardens/
  39. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/07/01/month-end-accounts-june-2019/
  40. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2019/07/investment-review-june-2019.html
  41. https://financeyourfire.com/2019/07/02/portfolio-update-june-2019/
  42. https://financeyourfire.com/2019/06/28/adventures-in-cryptospace/
  43. https://www.earlyretirementguy.com/summer-2019-networth-update/
  44. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/07/05/Early-retirement-costs-targets—June-2019
  45. https://asimplelifewithsam.com/2019/07/02/june-review-and-spending/
  46. https://www.1500days.com/uk-chautauqua-fi-peeps-scarce-sleep-and-lots-of-sheep
  47. https://sharpenyourspades.com/2019/07/07/allotment-jobs-for-july/








The Full English -HM Rev & Customs MVP

What’s am I buggering on about this week?

IMO the current government are utterly inept. That doesn’t stop the civil servants in the Palace of Westminster though, oh no. And some clever dick in HM Rev & Customs has been playing in a blinder over the last few years. Act 1) Letting inheritance tax quietly roll in. TI covered this in the Monevator weekend reading a few weeks back, but I wanted to look in further detail (1). The increasing CGT returns has partly come from increasing inheritance tax. This is the wealth of the baby boomers, coming home to the treasuries roost. To quote the i article, in the past 20 years the total value of people’s estates has more than doubled, so that as a percentage of income it’s reaching 1930s levels (2). It will continue to rise as the wealthiest generation die off.

I don’t particularly like inheritance tax. Beyond personal reasons I see it as an inefficient method of redistributing wealth stinging the middle class rather than the truly rich (who can circumvent it), and essentially double-taxation. YFG said it better on Monevator than I ever can (3, 4). Inheritance tax is currently at a relative effective low, but there are many calls for change. Some of this is driven by the way inheritance tax is stinging younger generations, who due to house price change have not been able to afford property and so have been waiting for inheritance to give them a step on the ladder (2). A survey published this week by Charles Stanley suggested that for many this expectation was unrealistic (5). Millennials were expecting 10x the median inheritance amount. The expectation was that this would act as their housing deposit, whereas in actuality the people they were inheriting from are living longer and more likely to use their house equity for nursing homes and then inheritance tax bills. Silly millennials.

What about Act 2? The BTL taxation noose. I’ve talked before about how I believe BTL is HMRC’s low-hanging fruit of choice. Now landlords are looking to sell-up as the new rules come into force (6). I think this is a really clever piece of rule-making. In the changes to Section 21, the government have made it harder to evict no-fault tenants, appeasing a big voting base (7). In the increase in stamp duty and removal of income tax relief they’ve stung profits, but harmonised with other income sources (8). Offsetting mortgage interest payments against income tax makes some sense from a business world point of view; like using stock write-downs and depreciation to reduce income assessments. It doesn’t make sense when you compare it to other private property scenarios, where you can’t offset your income tax bill with your domestic mortgage interest. Here it levels the playing field. The changes to the minimum EPC rating required for rental (now E), and tightening of BTL lending controls are just the kicker (9).

Practical upshot of tightening the rules on the BTL free-for-all, hobby landlords are driven out and professional landlords remain. Landlords come in all shapes and sizes, but those just about making the sums work are now going to struggle. The sale of these previously rented properties provides a nice CGT boost to the treasury, and also brings new property onto the market at a time when there is a housing stock shortage: double win! Just a shame these properties are generally only fair to middling quality, being ex-rental.

No longer interested in a BTL? Well you could go for a REIT, but I learnt this week about REAPs; Real Estate Annuity Plans (10). A sort of real estate investment bond, which funds affordable housing developments. Return is only 3%, but you get a nice warm glow inside without having to trigger your poverty allergy.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (affiliate links):

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.


  1. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-capital-gains-tax-receipts-are-soaring-a-good-bad-problem/
  2. https://inews.co.uk/news/business/britain-entering-golden-age-inheritance-baby-boomers-leave-assets/
  3. https://youngfiguy.com/inheritance/
  4. https://monevator.com/inheritance-tax/
  5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48213333
  6. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/05/landlords-should-you-sell-your-buy-to-let-properties/
  7. https://landlords.org.uk/support-advice/april-2019-changes-to-section-21
  8. https://www.moneyadviceservice.org.uk/en/articles/buy-to-let-property-investments
  9. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/the-private-rented-property-minimum-standard-landlord-guidance-documents
  10. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/may/04/ethical-housing-reaping-the-benefit-while-helping-out
  11. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/05/almost-700000-fewer-savers-open-cash-isas-are-isas-still-worthwhile/
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48185806
  13. https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2019/may/06/universal-basic-income-public-realm-poverty-inequality
  14. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48174797
  15. https://www.cnbc.com/2019/05/05/traders-brace-for-sharp-sell-off-on-trumps-tariff-threat.html
  16. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/may/06/zombie-firms-a-major-drag-on-uk-economy-analysis-shows
  17. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/uk-coal-renewables-record-climate-change-fossil-fuels-a8901436.html
  18. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48215896
  19. https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/analysis-just-how-green-are-electric-vehicles
  20. https://news.sky.com/video/i-owe-it-to-patients-to-work-extra-hours-but-im-being-penalised-11714585?fbclid=IwAR2cS3aGhMMhk0wyWBpo4K0q3H-fr7adUyEzSDaZB9eKoYA2bsNoSFN3QA0
  21. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/may/05/airbnb-homelessness-renting-housing-accommodation-social-policy-cities-travel-leisure
  22. https://monevator.com/personal-financial-disaster/
  23. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/05/08/tesla-procrastination/
  24. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/05/reckitt-benckiser-share-price-decline-good-value.html/
  25. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/05/selling-compass-group-after-share-price-gains.html/
  26. https://3652daysblog.wordpress.com/2019/05/06/stocktake-q1-2019/
  27. https://cashflowcop.com/multi-millionaires-and-still-have-to-make-choices-johns-story/
  28. http://earlyretirementextreme.com/what-permaculture-and-ere-have-in-common.html
  29. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/05/im-getting-up-to-speed-on-climate.html
  30. https://firevlondon.com/2019/05/11/april-2019-were-back-on-top-of-the-world/
  31. https://ditchthecave.com/love-to-lose-my-job/
  32. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/april-19-net-worth-and-monthly-update-9-434843-561/
  33. https://thesavingninja.com/dont-borrow-worry-from-tomorrow/
  34. https://awaytoless.com/why-we-keep-our-finances-separate/
  35. https://awaytoless.com/monthly-spending-april-2019/
  36. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2019/05/two-islands.html
  37. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/05/10/Some-early-retirement-confusion
  38. https://indeedably.com/challenge-the-premise/
  39. https://indeedably.com/history-repeats/
  40. https://www.jackwallington.com/long-term-planting-on-the-allotment/
  41. https://sharpenyourspades.com/2019/05/10/allotment-jobs-for-may/
  42. https://paulnelson90.wordpress.com/2019/05/10/what-to-do-with-radish/





The Full English Accompaniment – A life like Miss Havisham?

What’s piqued my interest this week?

Lately I’ve been struggling to post regularly to this blog. One of the things that’s kept me busy in recent weeks is helping out a couple of friends with their house. How they came to it is like the plot of a B movie. It goes like this:

Mr & Mrs X worked for many years for an old lord, taken on to look after him in his dotage. The old lord lacked heirs, and all his family were long dead. When he died in the 1950s, virtually destitute, they were surprised to inherit his house, a rambling 6 bed Tudor/ Victorian lump (plus outbuildings and grounds) in commuting distance to London. Being lowly housekeepers well into their 50s they could not afford the upkeep on the pile. To pay the bills they took on a lodger, Mr Y, newly qualified in his profession and looking for cheap accommodation. Mr & Mrs X had no children and came to look on Mr Y as their adopted son. He helped around the house, did some modernisation and gradually took care of them as they got older. When they died, they left Mr Y the rambling house, which he cared for and maintained.

Our friends parents, Mr & Mrs A, met Mr Y some thirty years ago. Mr A and Mr Y worked in the same place, shared many interests and had the same taste in cars. They developed a good friendship, that lasted after Mr A moved to work elsewhere. Mr Y stayed in touch with Mr & Mrs A, seeing them monthly or so, and even providing gifts for their kids as the family grew. Our friend has fond memories of playing in the garden of the big house and exploring the rambling outbuildings; the old forge, stables, garages, piggeries etc. As the family got older they grew apart, Mr Y becoming reclusive, but they still saw him a few times a year. Mr & Mrs A moved further away, downsizing for their retirement on their pension.

A couple of years later Mr & Mrs A got a knock on the door in the middle of the night. It was the police. They were informed Mr Y had died, and could they identify the body and act as executor of the will. They arrived at the house to find it, in effect, derelict. Two rooms were accessible, which Mr Y had retreated to towards the end; the living room heated by a coal fire, and the kitchen where he boiled drinking water on a single ring stove and ate tins of spam. There was no heating. Electrics had been wired in ad-hoc by Mr Y, mostly in the 50s. Water was pumped from a well to a lead tank in the attic every day. Most rooms had simply been shut up and left.

In order to identify Mr Y they had to find documents to prove who he was. This involved entering rooms locked for years. One room was full of Victorian trunks containing the old lord’s family papers, including an invite to Queen Victoria’s birthday party. Another room was full of bees. Another had no floor, just a void to the cellar. The loft was inhabited by rooks. In a box in a closet in the spare bedroom was an expired passport.

The final kicker lay in Mr Y’s 20 year old will. It specified that the house was to go to Mr & Mrs A but they had to live in it as a family for two years before they could inherit. The house was uninhabitable. Cue the current situation, where Mr & Mrs A are living in a caravan in the grounds, slowly cleaning, updating and renovating.

Are there any lessons to this story or is it just a good dinner party anecdote? Mr & Mrs A were retired, drawing down their pensions and were not expecting to sink megabucks into a restoration project. Now they have a poisoned chalice. It doesn’t matter what you inherit if you can’t afford to maintain it (see here UK aristocracy). Plus there’s definitely other people out there like Mr Y, saving and making money on the stock market and living like misers (1). It’s a lesson not to forget that the money you earn, the property you own, must serve a purpose.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (affiliate links):

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.


  1. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-04-27/the-mystery-of-the-millionaire-hermit?srnd=businessweek-v2
  2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48119158
  3. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/apr/29/big-tech-regulation-facebook-google-amazon
  4. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2018/10/07/climate/ipcc-report-half-degree.html
  5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47960657
  6. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/apr/15/short-notice-evictions-face-axe-in-tenant-rights-victory
  7. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-04-29/u-s-lags-china-expands-in-race-for-electric-vehicle-dominance
  8. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/howmoneyworks/article-6812847/Money-Diaries-Im-24-earn-43k-struggling-pay-debt.html
  9. https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
  10. https://monevator.com/understanding-bond-index-funds/
  11. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/04/invest-in-rolls-royce-plc.html/
  12. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/05/2018-stock-market-correction-and-the-art-of-being-patient.html/
  13. http://earlyretirementextreme.com/get-a-push-lawn-mower.html
  14. http://www.frugalwoods.com/2019/04/29/vegetable-seed-starting-supplies-and-other-march-2019-expenditures/
  15. https://cashflowcop.com/daring-to-dream-financial-independence-vs-childcare-costs/
  16. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/how-to-reduce-food-waste-save-money/
  17. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/05/04/april-2019-other-updates/
  18. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/05/pssttwanna-own-wind-farm.html
  19. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/autopilot/
  20. https://ditchthecave.com/april-2019-update/
  21. https://thesavingninja.com/crazy-gains-savings-report-10/
  22. https://littlemissfire.com/monthly-update-april-2019/
  23. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/april-2019-a-month-in-review/
  24. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/dividend-income-april-2019/
  25. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/05/01/month-end-accounts-april-2019/
  26. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/05/03/what-i-learnt-from-my-dads-early-retirement-aged-60-part-2/
  27. https://financeyourfire.com/2019/05/01/portfolio-update-april-2019/
  28. https://financeyourfire.com/2019/04/29/lifes-a-budget-and-then-you-die/
  29. https://pursuefire.com/monthly-net-worth-report-10-march/
  30. https://obviousinvestor.com/p2p-lending-portfolio-update-for-april-2019/
  31. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/05/03/Early-Retirement-Costs—April-2019
  32. https://asimplelifewithsam.com/2019/05/04/april-spending/
  33. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2019/05/04/brexit-not-in-my-name-thanks/
  34. https://indeedably.com/self-inflicted/
  35. https://www.visualcapitalist.com/world-population-pyramid-1950-2100/
  36. https://youtu.be/yrwDx7tS_bE
  37. https://paulnelson90.wordpress.com/2019/05/01/beltane-the-best-month-of-the-year/
  38. https://www.jackwallington.com/allotment-month-42-weeding-asparagus-and-carrots-potato-chilli-and-artichoke-update/
  39. http://twothirstygardeners.co.uk/2019/05/sustainable-growing-medium-coco-coir-coconut-peat-test-garden/
  40. https://lifeatno27.com/2019/04/30/bring-on-the-boston-beets/

The Full English Accompaniment – New Build Property Warranties

What’s piqued my interest this week?

I learnt this week about another peril of buying a new-build home. One of the reasons people buy a new build is for the ‘peace of mind’ of having a home where everything is new, and if something should go wrong, it’s covered by a warranty. Most warranties are structured to provide ‘defects insurance’ to fix problems which emerge up to three years after the builder leaves site, and ‘structural insurance’, which usually covers from years three to ten (1, 2). The mortgage on your new build notes this, and like all other mortgages expects you to get your own home insurance as well (3, 4).

So what happens when the provider of your new build warranty goes bust? This is exactly what has happened with Alpha Insurance, who were declared in default last May (5). The cover continues to be provided, in some form, by the Danish Guarantee Fund, but that doesn’t help those trying to get a mortgage in the interim like one Reddit user (5, 6). The problem is that most lenders expect a valid new build warranty policy on new properties in order to lend. When the policy provider goes bust this can’t be evidenced. Finding a new provider is apparently a bit of a nightmare. Most policies are provided to large building firms via industrial providers (7, 8). If you’re not a building firm insuring an entire plots worth of houses you have to go to a specialist provider, who are more set up for self-build and one-off builds. These firms are more expensive, often require architects drawings, and may be unwilling to insure or warranty a property that’s already built (9, 10). This leaves the owner either unable to find a mortgage or forced to pay a hefty bill for a warranty that covers thing theirs home insurance already protects.

A niche issue perhaps, but when combined with the number of articles in the news lamenting the shoddy build quality of new homes, I’m sworn off buying a new build. Not a month goes by where articles advise on the merits of snagging surveys, and dubious construction practices (11, 12). Others report on owners issues trying to actually sort snags out, and homebuilding firms putting money aside to repair their own errors (13, 14). As always, do your own research and go in with your eyes open.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (now affiliate links):

Tombland – C.J. Sansom – I love the Shardlake series, detective novels set in the Tudor period with a crippled lead character. Beautifully written.

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day


  1. https://hoa.org.uk/advice/guides-for-homeowners/i-am-buying/new-home-warranties-cover/
  2. https://www.gocompare.com/home-insurance/new-builds/
  3. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/insurance/home/20-home-insurance-traps-and-how-to-avoid-them/
  4. https://www.citizensadvice.org.uk/consumer/insurance/insurance/types-of-insurance/buildings-insurance/
  5. https://www.fscs.org.uk/what-we-cover/insurance/alpha-insurance-as-declared-bankrupt/
  6. https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/apglf3/alpha_insurance_default_cannot_remortgage_savings/
  7. https://www.cml.org.uk/consumers/buying-a-home/new-build/
  8. https://www.pbctoday.co.uk/news/building-control-news/all-you-need-to-know-about-structural-warranty/41840/
  9. https://www.fmbinsurance.co.uk/insurance-products/new-homes-insurance-build-assure/
  10. https://c-r-l.com/what-we-cover/structural-insurance/
  11. https://www.which.co.uk/money/mortgages-and-property/new-build-homes/snagging-surveys-apxu15x04s1j
  12. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/02/new-build-homes-why-some-owners-are-left-feeling-the-cold
  13. https://www.ftadviser.com/mortgages/2018/05/10/mortgage-lenders-soothe-fears-over-new-build-issues/
  14. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46302905
  15. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/10/plummeting-insect-numbers-threaten-collapse-of-nature
  16. https://www.propertywire.com/news/uk/falling-house-prices-means-property-investment-is-less-attractive-new-analysis-suggests/
  17. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/feb/11/study-links-heavily-processed-foods-to-risk-of-earlier-death
  18. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47200688
  19. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47224913
  20. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/feb/12/electric-cars-already-cheaper-own-run-study
  21. https://www.parliament.uk/business/news/2019/february/royal-assent-tenant-fees-bill-signed-into-law/
  22. https://moneyweek.com/501682/pensions-drawdown-disaster/
  23. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/renewable-energy-world-power-source-bp
  24. http://www.cityam.com/273176/starling-banks-75m-funding-round-merian-global-investors
  25. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47251465
  26. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/08/risk-of-global-recession-may-be-low-but-we-are-heading-for-slowdown
  27. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/14/how-can-we-tax-the-footloose-multinationals
  28. https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2019/feb/13/interserve-needs-a-plan-b-given-the-rebellion-over-its-current-plan
  29. https://www.fool.co.uk/investing/2019/02/10/thinking-of-investing-in-these-neil-woodford-ftse-250-stocks-read-this-first/
  30. https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2019/feb/09/william-keegan-nine-british-financial-crises-since-1967
  31. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/02/ftse-100-dividend-valuation-and-forecast-for-2019.html/
  32. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/02/13/how-to-put-out-a-fire-use-liquidity/
  33. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/02/12/early-redundancy-lessons-from-lifes-veterans/
  34. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/02/15/if-i-lost-everything/
  35. https://thesavingninja.com/if-you-lost-everything/
  36. https://youngfiguy.com/wiped-out/
  37. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/02/15/thought-experiment-2/
  38. https://indeedably.com/restart/
  39. http://ditchthecave.com/fear/
  40. https://firevlondon.com/2019/02/15/ive-lost-everything-through-a-cyber-theft/
  41. https://financeyourfire.com/2019/02/15/thought-experiment-wiped-out/
  42. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2019/02/calculating-portfolio-returns.html
  43. http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/02/11/hanging-out/
  44. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/02/my-global-index-funds-under-spotlight.html
  45. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2019/02/14/dutch-brexit-humour-from-outside-the-nuthouse/
  46. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-29-quick-rules-about-money/
  47. https://indeedably.com/what-you-keep/
  48. https://lovelygreens.com/growing-tomatoes-from-seed/

Property Renovation Lessons II

Continuing where we left off, we’ll walk in the front door when viewing a potential house purchase. In part two I’ll cover what I’ve learnt to look for in general interior room condition.
Shut the front door

Before shutting it, take a look at it. It seems a bit odd, but much like shoes tell the story of a person, I reckon a front door tells the story of a house. There’s lots of different styles:

front doors

Look at the construction; is the door PVC/ composite/ wood/ metal? Is the style of the door in-keeping with the age of the property? White PVC doors are very common, because cheap, and if a prior owner has opted for a cheap door they may have opted for other cheap options in the house. Has the owner put a modern door on an old house, perhaps hinting at a major modern refurb. In an older property does it retain it’s original wooden door? If so, look at the state of the paint. Such doors can last hundreds of years with maintenance, but need periodic sanding and repainting to maintain integrity. Again you can learn a lot about the owners attitude to preventative maintenance.

Look at the locks and door furniture. As mentioned in Part I, many insurance companies offer preferential rates for BS 5-lever locks. Most PVC doors are safer as they will have a multi-point locking system. Don’t forget to change the locks when you move in. Look at the door furniture; it can hint at chintz inside. Front doors have changed dramatically over the years, they tell the history of a property, and are an easy way to improve kerb appeal (1, 2, 3).


You’re in the front door so look down. Victorian and Edwardian builders knew the importance of first impressions. Older properties will hopefully retain the beautiful parquet or tiled flooring. This can be replaced but it’s expensive and I don’t think it ever looks the same (although we have looked at reclaimed parquet in the past).

Worn parquet can be sanded back and re-varnished, as can original floorboards. This can be a DIY job if you fancy a go, budget at least £150 for a sander for a weekend and varnish. There’s lots of guides and Youtube tutorials which can take you through the process (4). Cover everything in dust sheets. We’re still finding dust three years later.

When viewing houses we would find try to find a neglected corner of carpet, or a piece where it had already come up, and peek at the condition of the floorboards. We were lucky with our first property that the floorboards had been hidden behind 100 years of layers of carpet and were pristine. We also discovered a hidden terrazzo floor in a property we lost out on.

Terrazzo is a polished solid flooring, produced by pouring a mixture of resin/concrete and marble/ stone chips (5). It has similarities with polished concrete and resin floors, which are both very fashionable currently (6, 7).

Laminate and carpet

Both of these I could write entire articles about. Laminate can be beautiful when done well. It also offers a cheap DIY way to update and upgrade a tired space, with ‘click-clack’ self-connecting forms available from most retailers. On the cons, it’s loud underheel, and is used by slum landlords to hide substandard flooring surfaces. Engineered hardwood flooring is the step up from laminate where a layer of real wood is added to a ply backing. This can really make a difference to a space but is understandably more expensive (8).

Carpet again comes in all shapes, sizes and styles. Look out for damage to carpet, lifting, or the carpet moth that will munch it’s way through natural fibre (i.e. wool) carpet in darker spaces. Bare patches in corners with discarded casings and potentially larvae will point towards the moth. We stripped the carpet from our whole house and switched to synthetic fibre to try and eradicate our infestation (9).

Wall and ceiling coverings

Lets talk plaster, paint and wallpaper. We’ll start with that perennial favourite, woodchip. Used in the 60s and 70s to hide poor plaster and imperfections, it’s wallpaper will added chips of wood to provide texture. It’s one of the main things to put potential viewers off a house. It’s a bugger to remove, as those woodchips soak up attempts to chisel it off. It’s super messy, takes ages, but is cheap to do DIY (main cost being a £30 wallpaper steamer from Screwfix etc). There’s plenty of guides on the internet into how to tackle removal (10).

The texture and endurance of woodchip means it can hide a myriad of problems behind it. To an extent any textured wallpaper can do the same, and should be treated as such. Anyone can wallpaper a room, and it’s a quick way to refresh a room or hide problems. Don’t be fooled by Victorian anaglypta’s either, which can look stunning but hide issues.

Another covering you may come across is Artex. This is a further 70s product designed to hide poor plastering finishes behind a textured fascade. To make things even better, pre-1980s Artex was made with our old friend white asbestos (11). Undisturbed behind paint this is fine, but sanding or removal risks hazardous dust. The asbestos can be identified and the Artex removed by a specialist company, using steam or preparatory products (12). Some people tackle it themselves, which I would not recommend unless you are willing to risk Mesothelioma. The other alternative is to plaster over the top to produce a new flat surface.

People also deployed Asbestos (the wonder substance) in tile form on ceilings or where drop ceilings have been installed. This is mainly found in commercial buildings, but we clocked some hiding in a renovation project (a right dogs-dinner of a property) and ran. Again it really needs a specialist company to identify. Some people choose to remove it themselves with commercial-grade PPE, but I would not advise due to the health and legal risks (do as I say not as I do) (13). Asbestos has to be disposed of safely, and rules vary depending on your locality on whether your local tip will take it.

The only real mention I’ll make of paint is lead-based paints. If your house was built before the ’70s it probably contains some lead-based paint. This is only really an issue if the paint is damaged, crumbling, and you go around licking it or sticking it in your mouth. Kids do. It tastes slightly sweet (Darwin at work). Lead accumulation isn’t something to mess about with, so keep on top of it and don’t let your kids peel it off and chow down (14).


With the exception of paint, all of the coverings above can mask potential plaster issues. This is one of the reasons in recent property searches I’ve tended to prefer properties where I can see what I’m dealing with. Plaster problems fall into three main areas:

  • Dead Plaster

This is more an appearance than a problem itself. Traditional construction techniques were to use thin lathe battens nailed to the structural upright stud wall or brick. Movement of the wall, damp trapped in the plaster or superficial damage can all cause the plaster to lift away from the lathe. Attempts can be made to repair this by pinning the surround plaster and patching, but often it’s easier to hack off and redo with modern plasterboard and a fresh skim. On a ceiling this can suggest damp ‘falling’ from above, so a leak in a bathroom or roof (see below).

  • Cracked Plaster

Smaller cracks caused by structural movement in the property or just general wear and tear can be dealt with filler and a scraper tool. It’s important to make sure this is not the above, by lightly pressing on the plaster. If there’s a ‘give’ and movement then the plaster may well have peeled away from the underlying lathe, requiring more significant attention (15).

  • Damp

Damp. The blank chequebook to a cowboy builder. You’ll smell damp as soon as you walk into a house, that mouldy, fusty odour. It’s nothing to fear as long as you remember one rule. Damp has to come from somewhere.

Actually two rules. Rule two: rising damp is a sales tool. Don’t believe me? RICS agrees (16, 17). While osmosis happens, water won’t climb up a wall in a warm home because it has to. There’s such a thing as gravity. Damp proof courses are a waste of money. There I said it!

I’m not saying it doesn’t happen, but ground and construction conditions have to be really specific. Rising damp requires hygroscopic salts to be present in the minerals used in the walls construction and surrounding soil to create an environment where water molecules can move through osmosis. They’ll often leave crystals on the wall. ‘Rising damp’ as a ‘diagnosis’ got big in the ’60s and ’70s as a way to fix the problem of damp inside houses, right around the time lots of poor quality houses were being built and older houses being renovated by caking them in impermeable concrete (18). Same goes for cavity wall insulation. Older houses built of brick, stone and lime mortar were permeable. They would absorb moisture, they could ‘breathe’. If a wall was facing the predominantly inclement weather it could get damp, but it would dry out when the weather was dry again. The Victorians and Edwardians solved this by having an air-gap cavity wall. People in the C20th didn’t like the fact that walls would get damp, so they covered them in impermeable concrete render or membranes, plus plastic wall paints. They then added double glazing without air vents. This kept the rain and weather out, but also kept moisture produced by general day-to-day living in. If you breathe on a cold pane of glass it steams up. Multiply that throughout your home and you get condensation. This is the main cause of damp in homes. Other causes include:

  • Insulation – (I look forward to the class action lawsuits in 30 years as swathes of government-grant retrofitted old houses succumb to damp damage)
  • Heating on/off – must be constantly ON, but low temp = 15 degrees C – heating and then cooling creates an environment for condensation
  • Ground levels outside higher than inside
  • Broken guttering or missing downpipes
  • Vegetation growing near the wall
  • Trees creating shade and moist air near a wall
  • Lack of ventilation – double glazing, no vents
  • Blocked chimneys – fireplace blocked up, no vents
  • Furniture against walls creating cold, damp areas (18)

The answer is (as always) preventative maintenance and taking a nuanced approach based on the buildings construction. If you live in an older home you cannot expect it to achieve modern standards of insulation. Ensure you use permeable materials to allow movement of moisture in renovation work. Appreciate your higher utility bills as a trade-off for period features and room sizes. As a slight aside here, if buying a new property ensure that there are air vents in the glazing, air bricks in the walls and plenty of opportunities for air movement. Amongst high-end architectural design the move is towards Passivhaus standards, where moisture, dew points and ventilation are carefully controlled as part of holistic approach to construction (19).

How to tackle damp?

Unsightly mould around windows (like above) or on walls (below)? Check for vents in windows and doors. Check the type of paint or wall covering used. Often this is down to people not opening windows or allowing ventilation in an attempt to keep heat in. Crack the window or buy a dehumidifier (20, 21).

Peeling plaster, cracked and lifting paint? The is more likely to be penetrating damp, or a leaking roof or bathroom plumbing if it’s the ceiling. This is often enough to scare off most buyers, but look carefully. Penetrating damp or a leak has to come from somewhere (22). Is the external ground level higher than the internal wall? Are there boundary walls abutting the internal wall? It could be caused by a sill or beam bridging a wall cavity. Go back outside and look externally for cracks in render, damaged, eroded or poorly pointed brickwork, absent flashing or leaking gutters. This is why it’s often good to view a house in heavy rain. If it’s on the ceiling is there a bathroom above? If so run all the taps and check for drips. Is the roof in good condition, and can you view the loft in rain to check for water ingress? We had penetrating damp in a previous house caused by a) a wooden sill which was exposed to rain which soaked internally, and b) an external garden boundary wall abutting the damp wall, with next-door slightly higher than our ground level. Solved by rebuilding the external wall with damp proof tanking. I worked on another house where a ceiling would get wet when the wind blew from the North-East, as it then forced the rain up a pitch through the roof so it could drip down. Had to put a new roof on to solve that.


Fuse board

Fuse boards, or more properly domestic consumer units, are a must check. They ensure electrical safety in your home, preventing you getting shocked (/dying) and the house burning down every time something short circuits. They’ve developed over time with progressive regulation changes. Up to 2001 most homes were fitted with fuse boards like the older Wylex one pictured, containing individual rewire-able fuses plus a main circuit breaker/ isolation switch. Since 2001 regs have mandated individual residual current devices (RCDs) protection for circuits, offering extra protection (23, 24). Any new electrical work being done to a property will require an RCD system to meet regs. Budget £300-400 for installation of this alone. My garage is currently (not working) on an old 1940s cast iron splitter unit like the last image piggybacked off the main RCD. I’m exploring ways to retain the unit as it’s bloody cool (25).


Sort of an extension of the above, but it’s important to ensure any electrical work that has been completed to the property has been done so by an accredited person. All work should be certificated and ideally marked as tested. Any changes to circuits like adding new sockets, adding new outlets, changing lighting circuits etc technically needs this (26). Ensure you get these certificates when purchasing the property and when you have any work done. It’s often a requirement for property insurance, it can be in the fine print in the mortgages, and you’ll need it to rent the property out (27). Work without certificates opens up a legal minefield, and can knock serious cash off the property value. Copy and paste this to central heating, gas work and plumbing.


One to check out as you look around. First, is wiring (and plumbing) fitted with surface trunking, or properly chased into the wall? Trunking fitted to existing wall is quicker, cheaper but looks less attractive (to me). Chasing into the wall is harder, slower and more expensive, but the flush finish looks smarter (28). This will give you an idea of the costs the owner has spent on this sort of work and the quality they’ve been happy with.

If you can see exposed wiring (try next to the fuseboard or under-stairs cupboards) look at the colour of the wiring. Wiring since 2006 has followed European and Australian code; brown is live, blue is neutral, green/yellow is earth. Prior to that we ran red live, black neutral and green earth (29). Since the 1960s most UK wiring has been sheathed in PVC. You can age your wiring on what it’s sheathed in. Prior to PVC was vulcanised rubber (notable by being black), before that was lead (notable because it’s… lead), and before that it was all sorts of odd stuff including cloth and paper-wrapped wiring (30). The cloth, lead and rubber all degrade, so will all be due replacement.


We made a not untidy sum ripping out the rats nest of old wiring in a previous property. Once we’d turned everything off at the main breaker we found cloth-wrapped, lead-sheathed (£££) and 1960s wiring had all been run in parallel circuits under the floor. The joys of renovation!

Other things to look out for are old plug sockets like the one below, featuring the earlier circular three pin plug. There were lots of variants of plug prior to the adoption of the ubiquitous three-prong plug and socket in 1947 (31). This means you can reliably date your wiring and definitely decide it’s due a rewire. The UK’s socket design is the envy of the world (32), so embrace it! Brown bakelite junction boxes, on the other hand, are not something to run from. They’re still in production, still used and definitely serviceable (33). I really like bakelite as I think it’s retro, but then I’m a bit weird.



Where’s the stop cock? Check if there’s one in the house as well as one by your meter (if you have one) where it enters the property. You and your neighbours will thank you when you’re not screaming “How do I turn off the bloody water?” at 3am.


The water pipe for your property is your responsibility from where it tees off the mains (34). Track it’s path throughout the house if you can, check for leaks and quality. Lead has not been used for pipes since the 1960s but most old houses will retain it somewhere (as it’s a pain to replace for various reasons). Most internal pipes will be stainless steel, copper or plastic. Old pipes may be iron. They all degrade over time (at different rates), so need periodic maintenance (35, 36).

Pipes in the UK for central heating are generally copper or plastic (often white). They come in various sizes. Size of pipe is an important consideration when fitting central heating, as you need to calculate the total thermal load on the boiler (the radiators) and the efficiency and flow rates (based on pipe diameter and water temperature) to ensure that your boiler has enough oomph to actually heat all the radiators (36, 37). There’s online calculators that can help you work out your heating requirement to spec this, such as here: https://www.plumbnation.co.uk/heating-calculator/ (38). Frankly, I just get a plumber.

While we’re on boilers, check if the property has one. There’s essentially two types of heating; wet and dry.


  1. Does the property have a wet system (i.e. radiators and a water boiler)?
  2. Is it gas, oil, coal, calor gas, solid?
  3. How old is it?
  4. Does it have a hot water cylinder or on demand?
  5. Has it been serviced?


This is a whole other set of posts. Essentially most houses are on gas boilers, of which the most common is combi-boilers which do heating and hot water. There’s system boilers, which have a hot water storage cylinder (so are better for households that have multiple bathrooms and need lots of hot water at once), but are generally less efficient. Then there’s conventional boilers which have a water tank and a hot water cylinder (39, 40). Newer boilers across the range are generally much more efficient. Google the brand and model number and check the reviews. Older boilers can be very reliable if well maintained, so check for service record stickers. Budget between £1-4k for a decent replacement, and remember you really get what you pay for with boilers (40, 41). Budget more for a new install on a property without central heating.

Oil-fired boilers and calor gas systems are generally used for the estimated 4 million households that are not on mains gas. Oil is a bit more fuel efficient than gas, but can cost more to buy as the cost fluctuates and you have to store it in tanks (generally bunded green things) (43, 44). You can also run out if you forget to order more, or the roads are shut. Same rules apply re: servicing and replacement.


In the UK this basically means electric heating systems in rooms. Other countries and some UK commercial and old buildings will use a central furnace and hot air vent system, but they’re inefficient for our construction practices. Electric heating costs more to run than gas, and should really be considered only where gas is unavailable, where heating is infrequently required or where wet system installation is impractical. We’ve gone through various stages of electric heaters too, with electric radiant heaters (i.e. old bar electric bar fires), electric fan heaters, through night storage, oil filled and panel heaters. Fan, radiant and oil column filled heaters are usually portable and can be used to heat up the room you’re in at the time (45).

Panel heaters can be very minimalist and are therefore currently the fashion choice. They’re generally touted as ‘eco’, but given all electric heating systems convert electricity to heat what that essentially means is they don’t use much electricity as they don’t give off much heat. Night storage heaters look more like a radiator and work by heating up a ceramic brick during the night (when electricity can be cheaper if you’re on Economy 7/10 or similar) and releasing it during the day (46, 47, 48). They work much more like a conventional wet system, and get a room toasty warm. Budget £500 per heater.

There’s also ground-source or air-source heat pumps, solar thermal, district heating, underfloor heating, biomass systems and all sorts of others which I can go into in detail if people are interested (i.e. leave a comment to motivate me to do it!). I may do an eco renovation post in the future.


In part two I’ve covered most of the general building fabric and utilities considerations. This should give you an idea of what to look for on property viewings and in your own home. In part three I cover room specific considerations (kitchen, bathroom etc), construction (chimneys etc) and layout.

The Shrink


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  4. http://moderncountrystyle.blogspot.com/2016/02/how-to-sand-and-renovate-old.html
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  6. https://www.homebuilding.co.uk/polished-concrete-getting-it-right/
  7. https://www.allthingsflooring.com/2017/07/polished-concrete-vs-resin-floors/
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  21. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2008/mar/01/diy.homes8
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  23. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Consumer_unit
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  31. https://www.plugsocketmuseum.nl/OldBritish3.html
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  33. https://www.cef.co.uk/catalogue/categories/junction-boxes-bakelite-junction-boxes
  34. https://www.ofwat.gov.uk/households/supply-and-standards/supply-pipes/
  35. https://www.homify.co.uk/ideabooks/564032/choosing-the-right-water-pipes-for-your-home
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  38. https://www.plumbnation.co.uk/heating-calculator/
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