The Full English Accompaniment – Are you ignoring the biggest risk?

What’s piqued my interest this week?

I bang on about it a lot, so I’ll make this post short. I’ve spent a lot of my working life treating people who are knocking on death’s door. That’s not just the old and the sick, but also people who have had the worst day of their life. They woke up thinking that day was going to be like any other, and they end up lying in the bed of A&E Resus. A lot of the themes of what they tell me come through that influential book, The Top Five Regrets of the Dying (1). TL:DR, the top five are:

  • I wish I’d had the courage to live a life true to myself, not the life expected of me
  • I wish I hadn’t worked so hard
  • I wish I’d had the courage to express my feelings
  • I wish I had stayed in touch with my friends
  • I wish I had let myself be happier (2)

Hard lines. Many echo in the motivations for early retirement, as we hope to reconnect with friends, find happiness and express our feelings in new hobbies and activities. At it’s core early retirement allows us to live a life true to our hopes, dreams and interests, and not based upon the expectations of the man.

All this post aims to do is to challenge the weightings mentally applied to the above. The trade-off made between working hard for the future, and enjoying the now. There is a temptation to work twice as hard to reach an early retirement future in half the time. That relies upon the certainty of your future. That certainty is a risk that needs to be thought about and managed, by taking care of yourself. Having a million quid in the bank is useless if you’ve given yourself scurvy by eating nothing but porridge and rice. I’ll end this with two short examples pulled from the Reddit vaults (3, 4):

Have a morbid great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (now affiliate links):

Tombland – C.J. Sansom – I love the Shardlake series, detective novels set in the Tudor period with a crippled lead character. Beautifully written.

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.

SowHow: A Modern Guide to Grow-Your-Own-Veg – Paul Matson & Lucy Anna Scott – I’ve been reading this in the evenings ahead of the sowing season. Simple, neat and effective in both design and instruction.

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day

References:

  1. https://amzn.to/2TOczPu
  2. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2012/feb/01/top-five-regrets-of-the-dying
  3. https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/8vwc8l/consider_that_you_might_never_enjoy_your_nest_egg/
  4. https://www.reddit.com/r/FIREUK/comments/amfmuv/ahso_ive_been_mitigating_the_wrong_risk/
  5. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2019/02/starling-launches-euro-currency-account-could-it-save-your-cash-from-brexit/
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/uk-politics-47164882/what-would-you-do-if-you-were-financially-independent
  7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/feb/07/bank-of-england-holds-interest-rates-cuts-growth-forecast
  8. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47155145
  9. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/feb/07/uk-house-prices-fall-in-january-as-brexit-puts-off-buyers
  10. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47133564
  11. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-47068401
  12. https://www.physicianonfire.com/fire-movement/
  13. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/02/a-look-at-green-bonds.html
  14. https://youngfiguy.com/just-because-you-can-doesnt-mean-you-should/
  15. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/02/n-brown-dividend-cut.html/
  16. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2019/02/high-yield-portfolio-whats-in-name.html
  17. https://cashflowcop.com/my-stone-of-life/
  18. https://theescapeartist.me/2019/02/05/work-bitch/
  19. https://www.msziyou.com/net-worth-updates-january-2019/
  20. http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2019/02/managing-retirement-drawdown.html
  21. https://ditchthecave.com/january2019update/
  22. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/dividend-income-january-2019/
  23. https://firevlondon.com/2019/02/03/january-2019-many-happy-returns/
  24. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/02/02/january-2019-plus-other-updates-2/
  25. https://drfire.co.uk/investment-strategy/
  26. https://indeedably.com/shortcut/
  27. https://monevator.com/low-cost-index-trackers/
  28. https://monevator.com/find-the-best-online-broker/
  29. https://monevator.com/is-capitalism-in-crisis/
  30. https://firethe9to5.com/2019/02/03/its-official-i-fired-the-9-to-5/
  31. https://lovelygreens.com/create-wood-chip-garden-paths/
  32. https://sharpenyourspades.com/2019/02/04/incredible-crops-im-growing-in-2019-vital-seeds/
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Full English Accompaniment – Is financial independence achievable by anyone?

What’s piqued my interest this week?

The above question appears to be a recurring theme in our little niche of the financial blogging community. High-profile, mainstream public-facing blogs like MMM and the Frugalwoods argue that anyone and everyone can potentially be financially independent and retire early, if they take the right steps (1). It’s great for selling the story and motivating potential readers, but to me it’s selling an impossible dream.

To explain let’s draw up some basic sums. The amount most people can save towards an early retirement can be defined as:

Amount saved = (Defined pension + take-home Earnings) – (Basic living + lifestyle Costs)

A = (D+E) – (B+C)

For the sake of simplicity we’ll ignore tax rebates, dividend payments, inheritance etc. I’m not even going to bother running this on a minimum wage. Instead we’ll start at the UK Living Wage, currently £9.00/hr (2). This is built on the Minimum Income Standard, which calculates the cost of the average basket of goods required for a household to afford an acceptable standard of living (3).

A 23 year old working a 37.5hr week on £9/hr that will see a yearly salary of £17,550. Plug that into a salary calculator, incorporating 8% pension contribution with an 8% employer match. That’s D and E. The Living Wage is based upon a minimum acceptable standard of lifestyle, so we’ll use that figure again for B, with £0 lifestyle inflation cost and we get (4):

A = ((£76.79 X 2)+£1214.81) – (£1214.81+£0)

How does that lifestyle cost compare? Well the average UK 1 bed flat costs £600, but that’s skewed by London’s ridiculous prices (5). Say instead you’re sharing or living in an area with cheaper housing, it’s more likely to be £400/month, this represents ~30% of your earnings and so if a fairly accurate representation given the UK average is 25% of earnings spent on accommodation (6). If you get can by on another £600/month for all other expenses then well done, you can save £215. Add in your generous pension contributions and you’re up to £365/month put aside for the future, or £4,380 annually. Run that number through a rough early retirement calculator and we get that you can retire in 33 years. So that’s early retirement at 56 for a lifetime spent in a one bed flat and minimum acceptable standard of living.

Not realistic? Lets work another example. Example 2:

30 year old earning median UK disposable household income (2017) of £27,300 (7). Same sums, same aggressive pension match, £1715.31 take home. This time our 30 year old has got bored of living in digs, and is instead renting a two bed new build in a LCOL area. £750/month for rent gets you access to homes in 67% of the UK, so compared to Example 1 you’ll pay £350 more/month (8). Your lifestyle has inflated a bit, but not much, just a few beers now and then, a better phone, a decent tv and slightly better food. Say £100/month? So, let’s punch that into our equations and calculators:

A = ((£141.79 X 2)+£1715.31) – (£1214.81+£450)

A = £334

Retire in 44 years

Ouch. That lifestyle inflation has hit hard. Your early retirement age is now 74. So what do you do? Cut back on the house size or go back to shared accommodation? Stop drinking and eat 7p basics noodles? We know that actually, due to the benefits from our taxation system and social support services, a moderate increase in income in the lower quartiles makes little difference to disposable income (available for savings). Lifestyle inflation at this end quickly gobbles up the extra earnings as you are now comfortable, not just-about-managing. Do you make yourself uncomfortable to retire early? That requires a special type of motivation (9, 10, 11).

You have to be a high earner to achieve the % savings rates required for early retirement without living uncomfortably in some way. Ignoring this fact is dreaming. Most people will not achieve early retirement without either lifestyle discomfort or a serious increase in their earning power. That’s FIREs dirty little secret (11). To say otherwise is to sell a dream.

I don’t think this is a bad thing.

Because the world is driven by soundbites and nicely packaged information, easily digestible and understandable. The majority of the FI blogs pitched to the mainstream do just that, make it easily digestible, understandable and relate-able. A cynic would argue it funds their early retirement through a customer-facing monetised website (12). But I’m not that cynic, this is a good thing, more people should be thinking about their money matters. The UK household savings ratio is currently stuck around 4%, and has been for several years (13):

capture

The financial choices required for early retirement are for everyone. 

The’ye just a good idea. Just by thinking about your finances you’re ahead of those ignoring their accounts. To crib my fellow medical colleague, the female money doc (14):

  • Know your numbers
  • Build assets
  • Get out of debt
  • Buffer it
  • Consider extra income streams

Anyone could achieve financial independence, but not everyone can. The effort can only be a good thing. No shame in trying!

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Side Orders

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (now affiliate links):

Tombland – C.J. Sansom – I love the Shardlake series, detective novels set in the Tudor period with a crippled lead character. Beautifully written.

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanity’s’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day

References:

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/mar/08/how-to-retire-early-frugal-spending
  2. https://www.livingwage.org.uk/calculation
  3. https://www.lboro.ac.uk/research/crsp/mis/
  4. https://www.thesalarycalculator.co.uk/salary.php
  5. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46072509
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44046392
  7. https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/personalandhouseholdfinances/incomeandwealth/bulletins/householddisposableincomeandinequality/financialyearending2017
  8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-23234033
  9. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-4110482/How-rich-Work-income-wealth-sits-UK.html
  10. https://www.financialsamurai.com/the-average-savings-rates-by-income-wealth-class/
  11. http://www.flannelguyroi.com/dirty-little-secret-early-retirement/
  12. https://theoutline.com/post/3840/frugalwoods-frugality-millennials?zd=2&zi=kjpt6k5u
  13. https://tradingeconomics.com/united-kingdom/personal-savings
  14. https://thefemalemoneydoctor.com/reach-financial-freedom/
  15. https://www.marketwatch.com/story/guid/FC86FC66-19DD-11E9-84BA-7B8C470F8CAB
  16. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2019/jan/17/uk-house-prices-fall-at-fastest-rate-in-six-years-on-back-of-brexit-rics
  17. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/uk-house-price-index-for-november-2018
  18. https://www.dailymail.co.uk/money/markets/article-6578873/Renewable-power-provider-Bulb-Energy-slumps-24m-loss-amid-squeeze-small-suppliers.html
  19. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46900918
  20. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/nils-pratley-on-finance/2019/jan/17/government-isnt-quite-ready-drop-obsession-with-nuclear-greg-clark-business-secretary
  21. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/12/subprime-timebomb-back-companies-lighting-the-fuse/
  22. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/comment/metro-bank-profit-warning-new-branches-mortgages-challenger-banks-santander-uk-branch-closures-a8742301.html
  23. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jan/15/immediate-fossil-fuel-phaseout-could-arrest-climate-change-study
  24. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-46865204
  25. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jan/16/marks-spencer-selling-loose-fruit-veg-plastic-waste/
  26. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46793506
  27. http://www.bbc.com/future/story/20181217-the-best-time-of-year-to-x
  28. https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2019/jan/17/breached-data-largest-collection-ever-seen-email-password-hacking
  29. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46958560
  30. https://landlords.org.uk/news-campaigns/news/tenant-fees-bill-provisions-come-effect-june-2019
  31. https://www.express.co.uk/life-style/cars/1076669/kia-e-niro-car-of-the-year-electric-vehicle/
  32. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jan/15/junior-doctors-working-past-shift-end-nhs-data-england/
  33. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-the-house-that-jack-built/
  34. https://monevator.com/venture-capital-investing/
  35. http://www.frugalwoods.com/2019/01/18/this-month-on-the-homestead-burning-brush-and-the-life-and-times-of-firewood/
  36. http://www.frugalwoods.com/2019/01/25/hacked-sodastream-seltzer-reload-and-other-december-2018-expenditures/
  37. https://ournextlife.com/2019/01/14/one-year-adventures/
  38. http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2019/01/2018-in-review-let-decompression.html
  39. https://monevator.com/the-pension-protection-fund-ppf/
  40. https://youngfiguy.com/patisserie-valerie-what-happens-now/
  41. https://youngfiguy.com/mrs-yfg-why-i-stay/
  42. https://youngfiguy.com/podcasts-like-buses/
  43. https://firevlondon.com/2019/01/20/avoiding-tax-in-the-uk/
  44. https://www.msziyou.com/2018-review/
  45. https://www.msziyou.com/2019-goals/
  46. https://ditchthecave.com/prioritisation/
  47. https://ditchthecave.com/marginal-gains/
  48. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/01/why-i-sold-glaxo-dividend-yield.html/
  49. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/01/thin-profit-margins-bad-investments.html/
  50. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2019/01/capital-employed-growth-instead-of-earnings-growth.html/
  51. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/damp-squib-december-income-expenses-report/
  52. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/2018-review-plus-2019-goals-the-year-of-keeping-calm-and-carrying-on/
  53. https://theescapeartist.me/2019/01/17/what-to-expect-when-youre-expecting/
  54. https://thesavingninja.com/how-to-work-in-the-city-on-a-budget/
  55. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/01/17/changes-afoot/
  56. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/01/one-million-pageviews-for-blog.html
  57. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/01/aberforth-smaller-final-results.html
  58. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/01/18/geoarbitrage-how-to-survive-in-london-with-less-than-a-million-quid-in-the-bank/
  59. https://littlemissfire.com/side-hustles-report-december-2018/
  60. https://littlemissfire.com/paying-off-the-mortgage-jan-2019/
  61. https://littlemissfire.com/how-to-heat-your-home-for-free-with-a-wood-burner/
  62. https://pursuefire.com/the-power-of-compounding-the-rule-of-72/
  63. https://pursuefire.com/monthly-net-worth-report-7-december/
  64. http://www.thefinancezombie.com/2019/01/prime-your-mind.html
  65. https://indeedably.com/left-behind/
  66. https://lifeatno27.com/2019/01/23/winter-cool-calm-and-collected/
  67. http://twothirstygardeners.co.uk/2019/01/how-to-make-rhubarb-and-ginger-shrub-easy-alcohol-free-cocktail-recipe/

The Full English Accompaniment – A pile of post(s)

What’s piqued my interest this week month?

I’m back. I’ve tried to keep abreast of most blogs, but there’s been so many over the last month I’m sure I’ve missed plenty. Maybe I’ve picked up something you haven’t.
One of the things that happened while I was away was a letter dropped through my door to tell me that from next year, the Welsh Government will begin to have a devolved say on where income tax goes (1). They’ll do this through also setting a proportion of the income tax rate. Practically this will be by cutting 10p across all rates, and then allowing the devolved Welsh parliament to decide their own rate, much like the Scots (2). Aside from providing me with an interesting talking point compared to my saesneg counterparts, this could form the basis for some interesting economic differences.
The current Welsh Gov has promised to “fight austerity” (3). Elections in Wales are consistently won by Labour (surprise, surprise) (4). It wouldn’t surprise me if the devolved government put up local taxes relative to England to fund the local NHS, social, public and teaching services (which is what the identified taxes are supposedly for). As an NHS worker who’s worked in both the England and Wales, I would argue that the Welsh NHS system, never the victim of attempts to privatise or introduce market systems, works better. Years of underfunding means it doesn’t meet targets just like the English NHS. The subtle differences aren’t in the figures. Cleaners, porters and other allied healthcare professionals remain in house rather than subcontracted. There remains a pride held by staff who have often worked in their secure jobs for years. With additional funding it could quickly rise above it’s English counterpart. This would cause disparity in those public services between the regions. I assume in the long run the Gov will be keen to avoid this, to avoid service tourism or bolt-holes. It’s not so great for those of us hoping for a top-rate tax salary somewhere down the line, but worth considering for those looking at early retirement and a change of scenery.
The other interesting element comes in Welsh Gov’s pretty progressive tax ideas (5). It looks likely a vacant land tax will be a priority in the short term. Welsh politicians, away from the decorum and roar of the Houses of Parliament, are pretty in touch with their grass-roots. There’s more of a focus on local development issues, and manufacturing and industry are prioritised, particularly green and tech sectors. See the targeted investments in the North Wales Growth Deal and specific industrial sectors (6, 7, 8). In general I’m a fan of more local taxation controls so I look forward to seeing how this will pan out with more cash in hand.
Have a great weekend, and I’ll leave you with this on Brexit,
The Shrink
Side Orders

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

I’m off for a lie-down

What I’m reading:

La Belle Sauvage: The Book of Dust Volume One – Philip Pullman – finished, pretty good but not His Dark Materials. Great characters as always. Now onto…

Fools and Mortals – Bernard Cornwell

Religio Medici and Urne-Buriall by Sir Thomas Browne – the theological and psychological reflections of a C17th doctor.

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day

References:

  1. https://gov.wales/funding/fiscal-reform/welsh-taxes/income-tax/?lang=en
  2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-43655803
  3. https://www.publicfinance.co.uk/opinion/2018/11/welsh-government-promises-fight-negative-effects-brexit-and-austerity
  4. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_Assembly_for_Wales_election,_2016
  5. https://gov.wales/funding/fiscal-reform/welsh-taxes/developing-new-taxes/?lang=en
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-46006697
  7. https://www.gov.uk/government/news/wales-creative-industries-to-benefit-from-major-new-research-investment
  8. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-41189458
  9. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/pensions-retirement/financial-planning/want-early-retirement-ditch-day-job-follow-dreams/
  10. https://bit.ly/2zdJYuJ
  11. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/2018/11/12/challenger-bank-starling-secures-10m-war-chest/
  12. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46037259
  13. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/property/house-prices/house-price-growth-falls-five-year-low/
  14. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46233111
  15. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/12/interserve-shares-dip-to-lowest-in-30-years-amid-finance-concerns
  16. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/news/article-6342135/No-deal-Brexit-rates-rise-says-Bank-England.html
  17. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-46195282
  18. https://bit.ly/2DLo2eu
  19. https://www.which.co.uk/news/2018/11/does-new-0-99-deal-offer-the-best-mortgage-rate-on-the-market/
  20. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-46294104
  21. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/nov/20/us-stock-markets-continue-fall-erasing-2018-gains
  22. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/guides/article-6308745/A-guide-new-digital-world-looking-five-best-known-app-based-banks.html
  23. https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2018/nov/01/the-city-should-calm-down-it-could-end-up-becoming-a-rule-taker
  24. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/11/08/honey-badger-entrepreneur/
  25. https://monevator.com/house-prices-mental-accounting-and-leaky-buckets/
  26. https://monevator.com/navigating-the-brexitshambles/
  27. https://monevator.com/how-to-buy-and-sell-index-tracker-funds/
  28. https://humbledollar.com/2018/10/ignore-the-signs/
  29. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2018/11/22/run-towards-the-light-not-away-from-the-darkness/
  30. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2018/10/24/dogs-ftse-dogs-q3-2018/
  31. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2018/10/31/october-2018-plus-other-updates/
  32. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2018/11/17/mainstream/
  33. https://theescapeartist.me/2018/10/23/get-rich-with-lodgers/
  34. https://theescapeartist.me/2018/11/06/why-would-anyone-write-a-blog/
  35. https://3652daysblog.wordpress.com/2018/10/20/where-is-the-snowball/
  36. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/when-stocks-fell-10/
  37. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/11/trends-time-lapses/
  38. https://youngfiguy.com/patisserie-valerie-what-happened/
  39. https://youngfiguy.com/what-is-early-retirement-like/
  40. https://youngfiguy.com/how-i-track-investment-returns/
  41. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/october-18-net-worth-and-monthly-updates-3/
  42. https://drfire.co.uk/the-importance-of-diversification/
  43. https://drfire.co.uk/october-2018-income-expenses/
  44. https://firevlondon.com/2018/11/04/ouch-tober-2018/
  45. http://www.msziyou.com/net-worth-updates-october-2018/
  46. http://www.msziyou.com/as-the-clocks-go-back/
  47. http://www.msziyou.com/balancing-simplicity-and-risk/
  48. https://also.roybahat.com/dear-first-time-angel-investor-c6af249a694b
  49. https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2018/10/an-october-surprise-making-sense-of.html
  50. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/october-income-expenses-report-stocky-horror-show/
  51. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/11/17/october-income-and-expenses-report-2018/
  52. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/11/13/october-side-hustle-report-and-mortgage-over-payments/
  53. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/11/20/tried-and-tested-can-you-make-money-creating-book-covers/
  54. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/your-mental-health-is-more-important-than-your-bank-balance/
  55. https://deliberatelivinguk.wordpress.com/2018/11/09/october-2018-review/
  56. https://deliberatelivinguk.wordpress.com/2018/10/29/the-18-year-property-cycle/
  57. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/10/market-corrections.html/
  58. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/11/wh-smith-dividend-growth-investors.html/
  59. https://indeedably.com/goals-strategy-and-tactics/
  60. https://indeedably.com/university-fees-are-optional/
  61. https://indeedably.com/demagoguery/
  62. https://indeedably.com/i-own/
  63. https://indeedably.com/how-i-money/
  64. https://sharpenyourspades.com/2018/10/27/easy-home-grown-pickled-shallots/
  65. https://lifeatno27.com/2018/10/31/happy-3rd-birthday/

The Full English – Are we nearly there yet?

What’s piqued my interest this week?
Caution, monster link-fest ahead. 
Well this has been a busy old week in the markets, eh? The FTSE sunk off the back of US losses, due in part to rising Federal Reserve interest rates (fuelling a drop in bond returns, therefore loss in confidence, therefore sell-off), and losses on tech stocks, particularly the FANG lot (1).
Lots of our compatriots have seen a slide… Monevator  FirevLondon, RIT (2, 3). This is all excellent fodder for the press, who have called it everything from a correction, turbulence, to a “global market MELTDOWN, the beginning of the next CRASH” (4, 5). Hyperbole so ballistic SpaceX will be after the patents. And to be fair, lots of people have been voicing that we’re in the late stages of a bull market and we should be expecting a recession imminently. It only takes one person to yell fire to start a stampede.
Look past the press, noise and short-term numbers and see that actually, big down days aren’t that uncommon. The US blogs A Wealth of Common Sense and the Irrelevant Investor both had some excellent posts on this (6, 7, 8). Shamelessly stealing their graphs and tables, this was the 20th -3% day on the S&P 500 since the end of the 2008 bear, however 80% of 3+% down days were in a sell-off/ recession.
What does this tell us? You can’t predict the future, especially looking at just one measure, and if you’re well diversified and holding long term it shouldn’t matter. And will we even see a ‘great crash’? People are jumping on index investing in ever greater numbers, spurred on by pieces like this weekends NYT article (9).  This is supported by the Morningstar Barometer continuing to show passive beating active returns over the past 10 years (10, 11). Ten years of passive investors watching an incoming tide lifting all boats has had people warning of the end of active investing (12). Passive ETFs had grown to an estimated 35% market share by 2017 (13). I couldn’t unearth more recent figures, but it seems reasonable that this will have grown in the last year. Even the great Bogle was warning of danger. But if 35%+ of the market is in trackers which move with the market, what effect will this have on when the market moves? If all the trackers are holding, or at least slow in their re-balancing, theoretically it should create an undercurrent of stability within the market, mitigating investor psychological panic moves. Additionally, for us Brits, Brexit has introduced such a level of uncertainty into the UK economy that perhaps people have been holding off while across the pond they’ve continued to make hay. I bloody love YFG’s post this week on this very topic (14).
It’s also worth remembering many young investors (me, etc) have no experience of big down days and drops. I was doing my best to get horizontal at pound-a-pint student nights during the last recession. Woohoo, cheap beer! And as someone with a lifetime of saving ahead, I should be praying for a recession (15). I’m sitting tight at the moment. In my Q2 goals it was a target, but this was naive. Had I stuck all my money in Wolf Minerals as I planned when I was first starting out, I’d be buggered (16). Instead I’m going to continue building my emergency fund in cash, set a solid plan and keep a finger in the air to see which way the wind is blowing. To mix metaphors, I’m going to get myself fully shipshape before bracing any storm.
If there is a storm. Howdy Callum!
Have a great weekend,
The Shrink
Side Orders

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading:

Smashed through The Windup Girl in a week, fantastic atmosphere but a bit of a damp squib in the end. On to… La Belle Sauvage: The Book of Dust Volume One – Philip Pullman

Religio Medici and Urne-Buriall by Sir Thomas Browne – the theological and psychological reflections of a C17th doctor.

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day

References:

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/why-are-stock-markets-falling-and-how-far-will-they-go
  2. http://monevator.com/weekend-reading-looking-down-when-the-tide-goes-out/
  3. http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2018/10/2018-quarter-3-review-readying-for-fire.html
  4. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/12/ftse-100-falls-to-six-month-low-amid-fears-over-us-interest-rates
  5. https://www.express.co.uk/finance/city/1030145/global-markets-meltdown-equity-financial-crash-why-global-markets-are-down-today
  6. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/big-down-days/
  7. https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/10/10/u-g-l-y/
  8. https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/10/09/a-bullish-washout/
  9. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/12/business/index-fund-investors-simpler-approach-may-enrich-returns.html
  10. https://www.fnlondon.com/articles/passive-beat-active-over-the-past-decade-finds-morningstar-20181001
  11. https://www.moneyobserver.com/news/active-funds-have-underperformed-passive-all-two-sectors
  12. https://bit.ly/2CJjgNY
  13. https://www.forbes.com/sites/greatspeculations/2018/09/19/are-we-headed-for-a-passive-index-meltdown/#137fbde4413e
  14. https://youngfiguy.com/brexit-and-finance/
  15. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/who-benefits-from-a-market-correction/
  16. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-devon-45812974
  17. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45854817
  18. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-bristol-45770028
  19. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/oct/10/huge-reduction-in-meat-eating-essential-to-avoid-climate-breakdown
  20. https://on.ft.com/2PrHbnT
  21. https://metro.co.uk/2018/10/11/wh-smith-to-start-closing-stores-as-it-struggles-on-the-high-street-8027099/
  22. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45822650
  23. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/rbs-savings-account-best-interest-rate-goldman-sachs-a8578996.html
  24. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/brexit-uncertainty-taking-toll-property-market-rics-research
  25. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/oct/11/profits-slide-at-big-six-energy-firms-as-14m-customers-switch
  26. https://www.moneywise.co.uk/news/2018-10-08/chancellor-philip-hammond-planning-to-cut-pension-tax-relief-the-autumn-budget
  27. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/oct/13/uk-millennials-costs-eu-pay-rent-transport-grocery-revolut
  28. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-45750384
  29. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-45786690
  30. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/september-income-expenses-report-up-and-running/
  31. https://deliberatelivinguk.wordpress.com/2018/10/05/september-2018-review/
  32. http://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2018/10/05/the-fire-movement/
  33. http://monevator.com/preparing-to-take-a-retirement-income/
  34. http://monevator.com/ratesetter-high-interest-offer/
  35. https://youngfiguy.com/financial-independence-and-dieting/
  36. https://thesavingninja.com/what-would-you-do-if-you-got-given-1-million/
  37. http://www.msziyou.com/if-i-won-1m-tomorrow/
  38. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/the-million-pound-question/
  39. https://indeedably.com/million-pound-question/
  40. https://theirrelevantinvestor.com/2018/10/08/built-to-break/
  41. https://awealthofcommonsense.com/2018/10/the-case-for-bonds/
  42. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2018/10/climate-changebe-change.html
  43. https://www.morningstar.com/blog/2018/10/01/low-carbon-economy.html
  44. https://indeedably.com/accountability-cant-be-outsourced/
  45. https://theescapeartist.me/2018/10/09/get-rich-with-hobbies/
  46. http://ukfipod.space/004/
  47. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/oct/13/because-of-my-upbringing-ive-always-been-careful-with-money
  48. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/2018/10/hargreaves-lansdown-dividend-yield.html/
  49. https://www.jackwallington.com/allotment-month-34-happy-herbal-apple-disaster-persistent-prairie/
  50. https://sharpenyourspades.com/2018/10/11/love-garlic-then-you-have-to-grow-your-own/
  51. https://lifeatno27.com/2018/10/01/spuds-gluts-and-deliciousness/

 

Musing On… Motivation: Are you running from or running to?

What motivates your financial choices?

Reading a variety of FI and finance writers, it has occurred that those who blog are a rag-tag bunch. You have to be a bit different to move away from the credit-to-the-eyeballs herd. The reasons to go down the various financial paths, and then write about it are even more nebulous. A scientific mind led to attempts to discern some patterns among the noise. One such pattern is the writers motivation, and where the drive to save/ live frugally/ be financially independent arises.

Running from

For some, it seems the drive to be frugal is innate, inherited, learnt behaviours from early childhood. LittleMissFire talks about it as leaving the ‘shop floor mentality’, the mindset of a household living week-to-week, month-to-month, without financial planning (1). The crux of her post about the ‘shop floor mentality’ is the drive to better oneself, and leave behind the stress, envy, anguish and heartache of poverty (1). Understanding financial planning and making frugal life choices are just a short psychological hop from FI, and there seems a lot of overlap between frugal living and so-called ‘lean-FI’.

This drive to leave behind an unpleasant situation also appears prevalent on the FI forums I frequent, but here it’s less about a memory or experience of struggling for money, and more miserable working environments. For example (2):

And an example reply (2):

Small talk, alarm clocks, office politics, performance reviews, managers talking about you behind your back, tracking metrics, spreadsheets, deadlines, cubicles, dress code, meetings, daily existential crises, passive aggressiveness, emails with manager cc’d, scrum meetings, being taken advantage of, erosion of self esteem, etc. Etc.

I assume it was among those so miserable in their work that the term “Fuck You Money” arose (3). You’ve built up enough cash to say “Fuck You” to that miserable environment and walk away… but what then? How do you adapt your austere lifestyle out of work, with it’s focus on minimising all outgoings, to your new-found freedom (4):

Running towards

I sort of class myself amongst the running towards school-of-thought. I enjoy my job, to the extent that I am happy to go into work every day to perform it (especially after a slight change into a less front-facing role). I would probably keep doing it to some extent even if I wasn’t paid, because it is my ‘ikagai’ – a Japanese word whose closest translation is ‘the reason for which you get up in the morning’ (5, 6). Despite this I think the world is full of wonder, and I could spend whole other lifetimes doing different things. There are too many things to do and not enough time to experience them all whilst also working to support myself. FI, as The Frugal Cottage puts it, “gives you the option of spending your limited time however you want” (7, 8).

Just enjoying the run

This seems to be the final stage in FI nirvana fulfillment. Some suggest that by it’s nature, being frugal has a sort of contrarian cool (9). An echo of the counter-culture in a rejection of consumerism (10)More hippy than hipster I hope. Some bloggers, like TEA, enjoy the journey to FI and beyond because they developed an enjoyment of “the process of wealth building” (11) TEA writes about learning to enjoy these things by using conditional rewards; a big juicy carrot for the FI stick, training your brain to associate putting the financial graft in for a reward (11). Or writers like FIREvLondon, who enjoy the writing about their process, discussing ideas, commenting on experiences (12). This is a far better path to happiness, where any goal you set or any target you make can bring you fulfillment. Enjoying the process of blogging, the sharing of knowledge and community.

Why does it matter?

Understanding your motivation is inherently tied to your ability to complete the goals you set yourself for financial independence and frugal living. If your goal is off from what you truly want you’ll lack motivation, and if you’re motivated for only a specific purpose you may find yourself unfulfilled and lost when you reach that goal, or unable to reach it altogether. As I’m setting my goals, I’ve been noticing many are around things I’d do after being FI. I risk that there will always be one more goal or target. It’s time to think about my enjoyment of the pursuit, and I would urge others to ask, why do I want FI?

References:

  1. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/2018/03/24/do-you-have-the-shopfloor-money-mentality/
  2. https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/8ogyp8/people_who_are_trying_to_reach_fi_because_they/
  3. https://theescapeartist.me/2018/07/24/the-art-of-wealth-preservation/
  4. https://www.reddit.com/r/financialindependence/comments/94kmku/first_day_of_retirement_at_40_yo
  5. https://www.telegraph.co.uk/health-fitness/mind/finding-ikigai-japanese-secret-health-happiness/
  6. http://monevator.com/weekend-reading-what-is-your-reason-for-being/
  7. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/everyone-early-retirement/
  8. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/early-retirement-in-5-years-in-the-uk-is-it-possible/
  9. https://www.psychologytoday.com/gb/blog/the-eclectic-professor/201102/the-psychology-thrift-why-not-frugal-cool
  10. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/about-me/
  11. https://theescapeartist.me/2018/02/13/get-rich-with-the-process/
  12. https://firevlondon.com/about/

 

 

The Full English Accompaniment – UK bloggers I follow

What’s piqued my interest this week?

As the glorious summer of Brexit discontent and trade wars continues, I’ve mainly ignored the press in favour of my new garden and unpacking.

Last week a few people commented about the extensive list of links I put up. I’ve got into the habit of reading financial blogs in my spare time at lunch. I thought therefore this week I’d make a list of those I follow. The first ten or so I check every couple of days, other I may look at fortnightly, saving up posts for a stack of reading. I favour UK bloggers, those that write informed (evidenced) guides and experiences, those that share their numbers and those that don’t preach opinions. If a blog starts giving me their own theories based only on anecdotes I quickly switch off and diagnose quackery. I’m aware others have made similar lists, but hopefully I’ll bring to light someone you’ve not read before. Without further ado:

Non-UK:

Anyone obvious I’ve missed? Get in touch.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

 

Side Orders

Other News:

Opinion/ blogs:

What I’m reading:

Eric – Terry Pratchett – light relief

Religio Medici and Urne-Buriall by Sir Thomas Browne – the theological and psychological reflections of a C17th doctor

Enchiridion by Epictetus – Bedside reading for a bad day

References:

  1. http://monevator.com/
  2. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/
  3. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/
  4. https://firevlondon.com/
  5. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/
  6. https://youngfiguy.com/
  7. https://youngfiguy.com/mrs-yfg-why-we-dont-fight
  8. http://thefireeng.com/
  9. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/?m=1
  10. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2018/07/brexit-fudge.html?m=1
  11. https://www.ukvalueinvestor.com/
  12. http://financiallyfreeby40.com/
  13. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/
  14. https://littlemissfireblog.wordpress.com/
  15. http://www.msziyou.com/
  16. http://www.msziyou.com/inflation-friend-or-foe/
  17. http://www.msziyou.com/nature-or-nurture/
  18. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/
  19. https://3652daysblog.wordpress.com/
  20. https://firethe9to5.com/
  21. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/
  22. http://www.earlyretirementguy.com/
  23. https://sexhealthmoneydeath.com/
  24. http://financialindependenceuk.com/
  25. https://makesaveinvestmoney.com/blog-page/
  26. https://theescapeartist.me/
  27. http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/?m=1
  28. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/
  29. http://thecannycontractor.com/
  30. http://diversifiedfinances.com/
  31. https://www.physicianonfire.com/
  32. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-44841123
  33. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44838413
  34. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44840953
  35. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44891786
  36. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44893625
  37. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44882861
  38. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-cornwall-44879858
  39. https://www.tax.service.gov.uk/help-to-save/about-help-to-save
  40. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/19/more-than-500-gaucho-cau-workers-lose-jobs-as-restaurant-group-collapses
  41. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2018/jul/19/subsidies-for-new-household-solar-panels-to-end-next-year
  42. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/19/radical-plans-to-end-huge-costs-of-buying-a-freehold-unveiled
  43. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2018/jul/12/new-build-clawback-overage-persimmon-complete-survey
  44. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2018/jul/11/pounds-unexpected-robustness-may-point-to-underlying-strength
  45. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/44880278
  46. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-44851363