The Full English Accompaniment – Negative interest rates

Life’s turning into a real tough place to earn a return. Lots of talk from the BoE over the last couple of weeks about the potential for negative interest rates in the UK (1, 2). I’m not fully sold on negative interest rates. Japan has been trying it for several years with minimal effect (3). Feels slightly like a last roll of the dice from desperate men. This video from The Plain Bagel has a good explanation of how and why they’re supposed to work (4):

Couple that with NS&I, the last bastion of inflation-beating/equalling interest rates on savings announcing a cut to it’s interest rates, and things aren’t so rosy (5). Premium bond rates are also getting a haircut (6). Can’t really blame NS&I. They were tasked by the government with raising money through national savings. They were so wildly successful their IT systems have failed to keep up (7, 8).

So savings interest is getting chopped, and the stock market is looking bubbly. Speculation and individual stock manias appear to be driving at least a proportion of portfolio returns (9). The sustainability of the current run is debatable. Taken together I have concerns about the viability of my FI plan. There was an interesting article in the Telegraph this week, discussing whether the 4% rule for pensions will stack up in the era of low interest rates and volatile returns (10). Plenty of FI-ers plan using the 4% rule, based upon those ‘long-run averages’, to return necessary FI goal numbers. If we’re heading into a further decade of 1% returns on bonds/ savings, people will have to take more ‘risk’, diversify into property or equities to try and maintain their required 4%. Will house price increases or BTL supply those returns, or will it all come down to bull markets? The future is looking murky, and we continue to live in interesting times.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

P.S. I appear to be particularly miserable/ morbid/ grumpy today, so sorry about that.

News:

Blogs/ Opinions:

References:

  1. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/sep/17/bank-of-england-keeps-interest-rates-at-01-but-warns-on-economic-outlook
  2. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54314971
  3. https://www.investopedia.com/articles/markets/080716/why-negative-interest-rates-are-still-not-working-japan.asp
  4. https://youtu.be/pX3_3NMZa0k
  5. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/sep/21/nsi-savings-rates-premium-bonds-prizes-direct-saver-investment-account-isas
  6. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54232018
  7. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/saving/article-8775437/NS-plunges-meltdown-Delays-rates-tumble.html
  8. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/ns-amp-i-says-sorry-for-poor-customer-service-as-it-slashes-rates-2bmk7pvsl
  9. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4375276-macroview-newton-physics-and-market-bubble
  10. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/how-low-interest-rates-killed-magic-4-retirement-rule-vbbvvdt3c
  11. https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/sep/20/leak-reveals-2tn-of-possibly-corrupt-us-financial-activity
  12. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/markets/article-8750989/Nvidia-hits-bid-block-deal-tech-giant-Arm.html
  13. http://astrobiology.com/2020/09/phosphine-detected-in-the-atmosphere-of-venus—an-indicator-of-possible-life.html
  14. https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0237839
  15. https://www.airbnb.co.uk/rooms/44999445?_set_bev_on_new_domain=1600083186_IvH1VwA96IkDx8UK&source_impression_id=p3_1600083186_IFtPoKvH1zXUopRm
  16. https://www.winkworth.co.uk/properties/sales/goldhawk-road-shepherds-bush-w12/SHE121014
  17. https://www.rightmove.co.uk/property-for-sale/property-83955202.html
  18. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2020/09/15/milestone-reached/
  19. https://www.firemusings.org/updated-cost-of-coffee-cake-cookies/
  20. https://pathtolife2.com/2020/09/17/financial-independence-update-august-2020/
  21. https://southwalesfi.co.uk/2020/09/18/why-dividend-stocks-arent-as-good-as-they-sound/
  22. https://moneygrower.co.uk/10000-in-cumulative-dividend-income/
  23. https://asimplelifewithsam.com/2020/09/18/ideas-for-meal-planning/
  24. https://www.moneymage.net/6-reasons-to-batch-cook/
  25. https://www.muchmorewithless.co.uk/ration-challenge-meal-plan/
  26. https://playingwithfire.uk/living-and-working-abroad-can-you-get-to-fire-sooner/
  27. https://www.onemillionjourney.com/millionaire-interview-series-6-educatorfi/
  28. http://thefijourney.co.uk/wp/2020/09/20/project-2235-september-2020-update-a-new-normal/
  29. https://indeedably.com/explain-money-to-me/
  30. https://sassenachsaving.home.blog/2020/09/26/musings-on-turning-fifty/
  31. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/09/plug-power-portfolio-addition.html
  32. https://averagemoneymanagement.wordpress.com/2020/09/25/blocking-out-the-noise/
  33. https://www.foxymonkey.com/beat-inflation/
  34. https://drfire.co.uk/the-long-tail/
  35. https://bankeronfire.com/build-wealth-with-the-80-20-rule
  36. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2020/09/19/trading-up/
  37. https://medfiblog.wordpress.com/2020/09/24/flight-distance-a-p2p-story/
  38. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/09/worldwide-healthcare-trust/
  39. https://www.mouthymoney.co.uk/beware-dodgy-sellers-targeting-wannabe-influencers-to-peddle-rubbish-goods-online/
  40. https://sparklebeeblog.wordpress.com/2020/09/23/september-activities/
  41. https://monevator.com/should-you-use-cash-to-bridge-the-gap-between-your-isas-and-your-pension/
  42. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-daddy-what-did-you-do-in-the-great-pandemic/

3 thoughts on “The Full English Accompaniment – Negative interest rates

  1. Thanks for the link. I’m in a similuar mood- not helped by local lockdowns that are going on at the moment. I guess, inflation will be the next thing to fall due to people not spending? Let’s just hope we don’t get stuck in an awful circular loop of doom (lack of spending, less money, less growth, less jobs, less spending etc)

    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thanks for linking to my post. As if getting to the required FIRE number isn’t hard enough, we now need to worry about our number needing to be bigger than we previously thought. The joy! Better to think about it now though than when you’ve chucked it all in and gone skipping into the sunset only to find your money is disappearing faster than it should be.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Thanks for the link TFS!

    I’ve never really bothered with chasing the minimal cash interest rates. More so because I can never be arsed to keep filling out forms and moving my money around every 2-3 months for the sake of .000004% extra interest. It seems like a lot of admin for very little upside.

    I’ll be sticking to Premium Bonds, despite the haircut (made me chuckle).

    Liked by 1 person

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