The Full English Accompaniment – Why a seismic economic shift won’t happen.

The end of the month fell since the last Full English. That means a link-fest below. To save time for all the other writer’s out there I only have a few short thoughts today.

A YouGov/ New Economics Foundation poll published in the Guardian this week demonstrated that 31% of people want to see big changes to the global economy in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, with only 6% wanting no changes (1). I take any poll or news-worthy statistic with a pinch of salt, especially those espoused to support lefty claims in a lefty rag. However it makes sense, we’ve all experienced big changes through lockdown:

• Less commuting and more working from home
• Supply chain changes, less in the shops, more available locally
• A push to support local businesses
• Less spending for the sake of it on consumerist tat (because the shops have been shut).

Why not take this opportunity to change things? The Government is already bankrolling huge sectors of the economy. Now is the perfect time to do the big rejig. Perhaps switch towards:

• renewable, green energy and policies (2)
• home-working supported by massively improved infrastructure
• on-shoring industries to support rapid supply chains.

But we won’t. For two reasons.

1. Inertia (3)
2. Management.

People do not like dramatic change. Individually we may find it exciting and exhilarating. The potential. The opportunities.

That requires you to get up and do something about it. And we’re fundamentally lazy, stupid, panicky animals. We are much happier doing things the same way we’ve always done than having to learn something new. It requires effort, and motivation. Motivation on a national scale is a challenging construct.

The top level management are also not going to be on board. They have a vested interest in the status quo, it’s how they got there, it’s how they get power/money/fame (delete as appropriate). Why would they risk that?

Plus when have top-down restructures worked well? The Government’s management of the COVID tracking system says enough here.

So, like Soho’s pubs, we’ll soon be back to where we were before. Minus a few tens of thousand dead.

Have a great week,

The Shrink

News:

• Mortgage holidays, despite assurances, effect borrowing ability (4)
• If we think our economy has had taken a COVID hit, Latin American makes us look like amateurs (5)
• Do current tax breaks make electric cars a better choice? (6)
• Elon Mush is doing a good job of winding up stuffy executives (7)
• UK house prices fall (by 0.1%) (8)

Opinions/ Blogs:

• Larry Elliott in the Guardian on the why we may see higher inflation (9)
• And further debate on this on Bloomberg (10)
• Dad doesn’t understand Roblox app, daughter runs up £4.6k bill. I have many other questions from this article (11)
• End of the month means everyone’s savings reports. Here’s Money Mages (12)
• Tony at One Million Journey (13)
• Firevlondon (14)
• The Ways at A Way to Less (15)
• Saving Ninja (16)
• Weenie at Quietly Saving (17)
• Gentleman’s Family Finances (18)
• Playing with FIRE (19)
• The Frugal Cottage (dividend income) (20)
• Moneygrower (21)
• FI UK Money (22)
• Sparklebee (23)
• Path to Life 2 (24)
• Money for the modern girl (25)
• Where eagles fear to perch (26)
• Fire Lifestyle (27)
• Early Retirement in UK (28)
• Can’t Swing A Cat (29)
• There’s also quarterly updates from Monevator’s Slow and Steady passive portfolio (30)
• And Dr Fire’s Q2 report (31)
• And Igniting Fire’s Q2 (32)
• Firevlondon is also after your data as part of a survey for a future blog post (33)
• Fire Musings is looking at a new car (34)
• The Fire Starter has a general update (35)
• The FI Fox has a pros/cons for writing your own blog (36)
• Hustle Escape looks at the anchoring effect (37)
• GFF is enjoying working from home (38)
• Playing with FIRE has a guestpost from their other half (39)
• Monevator’s weekend reading has some interesting stuff on when financial planning software can be wrong (40)
• The Young Money Blog looks at the failings of apprenticeships (41)
• Banker on Fire explores routes to the end goal (42)
• Indeedably winds up on a new tack (43)
• DIY Investor UK purchases into Powercell (44)
• Foxy Monkey has a take on daytrading (45)
• ERN shares his thoughts on the passive investing bubble (46)
• The IT Investor looks at Blue Whale Growth Fund (47)
• Much More With Less reflects on financial benefits of lockdown (48)
• And Finumus thinks about whether schools are worth the cost? (49)

References:

1. https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jun/28/just-6-of-uk-public-want-a-return-to-pre-pandemic-economy
2. https://www.forbes.com/sites/joanmichelson2/2020/06/30/how-to-rebuild-the-economy-and-create-jobs-with-clean-energy-innovation/
3. https://indeedably.com/inertia/
4. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53222765
5. https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/07/04/a-latin-american-economic-tragedy
6. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/cars/article-8475855/No-road-tax-cheaper-run-E-car-recharge-finances.html
7. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/30/tesla-shareholders-urged-to-oust-elon-musk-over-55bn-pay-deal
8. https://www.theguardian.com/money/2020/jul/01/uk-annual-house-prices-fall-for-first-time-since-2012-coronavirus
9. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/jun/29/central-banks-could-face-political-pressure-to-allow-high-inflation
10. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-28/the-future-of-inflation-is-the-biggest-question-in-finance?amp_js_v=a3&_gsa=1&usqp=mq331AQFKAGwASA%3D#referrer=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.google.com&_tf=From%20%251%24s&ampshare=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.bloomberg.com%2Fnews%2Farticles%2F2020-06-28%2Fthe-future-of-inflation-is-the-biggest-question-in-finance
11. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-53272411
12. https://www.moneymage.net/2020-june-savings-report/
13. https://www.onemillionjourney.com/portfolio-update-19-june-2020-100347e/
14. https://firevlondon.com/2020/07/04/june-2020-disadvantage-month/
15. https://awaytoless.com/monthly-spending-june-2020/
16. https://thesavingninja.com/savings-report-24/
17. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2020/07/01/june-2020-plus-other-updates/
18. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2020/07/01/month-end-june-2020/
19. https://playingwithfire.uk/june-2020-life-spending-and-investment-update/
20. https://www.thefrugalcottage.com/dividend-income-june-2020/
21. https://moneygrower.co.uk/june-stock-purchase-the-new-economy/
22. http://fiukmoney.co.uk/june-20-net-worth-and-monthly-update-22-569037-13570-89-fi/
23. https://sparklebeeblog.wordpress.com/2020/07/03/monthly-update-jun-2020/
24. https://pathtolife2.com/2020/07/02/financial-independence-update-june-2020/
25. https://www.moneyforthemoderngirl.org/i-did-an-antibodies-test-plus-saving-side-income-and-learning/
26. http://eaglesfeartoperch.blogspot.com/2020/07/investment-review-june-2020.html
27. https://firelifestyle.co.uk/2020/07/01/financial-update-16-june-2020-going-up-up-and-away/
28. https://earlyretirementinuk.blogspot.com/2020/07/total-portfolio-37113-1688-debt-0-0.html
29. http://www.cantswingacat.co.uk/2020/06/30/june-income-report/
30. https://monevator.com/the-slow-and-steady-passive-portfolio-update-q2-2020/
31. https://drfire.co.uk/q2-2020-report/
32. https://igniting-fire.com/2020/06/29/2020-q2-update-long-days-short-weeks/
33. https://firevlondon.com/2020/06/29/help-wanted/
34. https://www.firemusings.org/time-to-change-the-car-part-1/
35. http://thefirestarter.co.uk/dont-faint-its-a-blog-post/
36. https://thefifox.wordpress.com/2020/07/05/why-everyone-should-start-a-blog/
37. https://hustleescape.com/anchoring-and-adjustment/
38. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.com/2020/07/04/8-great-things-about-working-from-home-during-the-lockdown/
39. https://playingwithfire.uk/hi-im-the-new-girl-expat-financial-mistakes-learnt-the-hard-way/
40. https://monevator.com/financial-planning-software-wide-of-goal/
41. https://youngmoneyblog.co.uk/apprenticeships-are-we-failing-disadvantaged-young-people/
42. http://bankeronfire.com/hunters-farmers-and-financial-independence
43. https://indeedably.com/better-days/
44. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2020/07/powercell-portfolio-addition.html
45. https://www.foxymonkey.com/day-trading/
46. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2020/07/01/passive-investing-bubble/
47. https://www.itinvestor.co.uk/2020/06/blue-whale-growth-fund-the-next-big-thing/
48. https://www.muchmorewithless.co.uk/lockdown-spending-habits/
49. https://www.finumus.com/blog/school-fees-are-now-very-expensive-or-are-they