The Full English Accompaniment – Sticking my head in the sand

What’s piqued my interest this week?

As per the last Full English (wow it’s been some time) I’m pretty fed up with the news. It’s just one long tirade of the world going to hell in a handbasket. I guess because doom sells much more than positivism. Everyone’s a critic. I also try to keep this blog fairly free of market commentary or news analysis, but it’s hard when everything currently seems to be dominated by Brexit. The whole situation leaves me teetering between tearing my hair our in frustration and a sort of savage karmic justice. Just in the news in the last fortnight we’ve heard that house prices have stalled due to Brexit, Brexit has decreased living standards by more than the last recession and we’ve watched the pound tank as investors start to actually take No Deal seriously (1, 2, 3). Almost as if the experts in ‘project fear’ knew what they were talking about.

The rise of populism, and popular, non-expert opinion political decisions is going to have consequences. We’re leaving our level-headed reputation behind (4). Sarcastic/ sardonic responses to ineffectual elected officials are everywhere:

Plus we’re left with a pretty weird field of economic play (I’ve been listening to a lot of Test Match Special). The pound offers little source of cheer, and it seems unlikely to stop falling in the short-term, but it’s long term direction depends upon… Brexit (5). The FTSE100 will likely go up due to global holdings increasing returns on a weaker pound, but long term… who knows? The wider FTSE might tank if the economy stalls, but… who knows? The global markets, driven mainly by the FAANG stocks (and otherwise largely treading water) could falter; there’s lots of calls and warning signs out there about the longest ever bear market, but… who knows? We live in exciting/ perilous/ infuriating times.

Now if you’re a good investor, wise to behavioural mechanisms and carefully plodding on with your long-term plan this should make no difference. You will buy wide and ride the rollercoaster. It’s only your physical life that will be stuck yo-yo-ing in the current political/ economic climate. The pound in your pocket, not in your platforms, is the one that leaves you wondering if sterling/ economy collapses and it’s going to be pulses for dinner for the forseeable. FIRE theoretically will allow you to ride it out, but that’s no consolation if you’re not there yet.

And why the savage karma? Well the No Deal course is properly uncharted territory. The great economic tides that have carried UK finance are turning. UK prosperity has risen with high waters of international plunder (straight up colonialism), international plunder through companies (East India Co etc), global industrial powerhouse, and most recently global financiers. I have a dark optimism that, like some bedraggled phoenix, the UK might rise from the ashes in decades to come. Our national culture values creativity and inventiveness. But just as the 50s-70s saw thousands lose jobs as the economic juggernaut was set on a new path, so No Deal offers a gaping chasm of redundancies and poverty as the track is laid. And No Deal offers it on a scale that dwarfs the miners’ strikes and Three Day Week. At least there was a plan then. Who suffers most in that scenario? The less-educated, less-wealthy and less-informed. Who voted for Brexit?

Have a great week,

The Shrink

Other News

Opinion/ blogs:

The kitchen garden:

What I’m reading (affiliate links):

Food Of The Gods: The Search for the Original Tree of Knowledge: A Radical History of Plants, Drugs and Human Evolution – Terence McKenna – An ethnobotanist explores humanitys’ fascination with hallucinogenics, and the role of altered states of consciousness on the development of human society.

References:

  1. https://metro.co.uk/2019/07/15/house-prices-stall-brexit-hits-buyers-confidence-summer-10312534/
  2. https://www.independent.co.uk/news/business/news/brexit-economy-uk-living-standards-household-income-recession-a9007821.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvref-8e74wIVS7TtCh33LwBvEAAYASAAEgIBUPD_BwE
  3. https://www.ft.com/content/dfab58d2-b512-11e9-bec9-fdcab53d6959
  4. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2019/07/08/schools-not-even-out-and-the-silly-season-is-well-underway/
  5. https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2019/jul/16/for-the-pound-there-is-little-or-no-short-term-cheer
  6. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/15/jaguar-land-rover-offered-500m-loan-to-develop-electric-cars
  7. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-48995511
  8. https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2019/jul/16/true-cost-of-cheap-food-is-health-and-climate-crises-says-commission
  9. https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/gadgets-and-tech/news/bitcoin-price-crash-latest-usd-prediction-value-facebook-libra-a9007761.html?gclid=EAIaIQobChMIvref-8e74wIVS7TtCh33LwBvEAAYASAAEgIBUPD_BwE
  10. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/long-term-savings-rates-raised-n08jb9f0h
  11. https://www.theguardian.com/society/2019/jul/17/renting-millennials-homelessness-crisis-retire
  12. https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/pcp-car-buyers-in-negative-equity-3j0drpq9c
  13. https://www.independent.co.uk/environment/scotland-wind-power-on-shore-renewable-energy-climate-change-uk-a9013066.html
  14. https://www.theguardian.com/business/2019/jul/25/uk-solar-power-pioneer-solarcentury-profit-grows-860-in-a-year
  15. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/mortgageshome/article-7305237/Virgin-Money-launches-Brexit-proof-15-year-fixed-rate-mortgage.html
  16. https://moneytothemasses.com/news/best-sunday-papers-money-sections
  17. https://www.theguardian.com/business/nils-pratley-on-finance/2019/jul/25/cobhams-demise-could-herald-a-flood-of-private-equity-takeovers
  18. https://www.reddit.com/r/UKPersonalFinance/comments/ceaqne/zoopla_estimates_how_accurate_are_they_an_analysis
  19. https://www.theguardian.com/lifeandstyle/2019/jul/24/millionaire-retired-30s-kristy-shen-bryce-leung-fire
  20. https://simplelivingsomerset.wordpress.com/2019/07/24/fire-is-for-the-few-not-the-many/
  21. https://www.thisismoney.co.uk/money/pensions/article-7240513/Should-fake-divorce-wife-split-pension.html
  22. https://monevator.com/weekend-reading-how-are-you-setting-your-table/#more-46828
  23. https://monevator.com/scared-by-a-share-split/
  24. https://www.mrmoneymustache.com/2019/07/20/estate-planning/
  25. https://theescapeartist.me/2019/07/18/op-loaded-getting-rich-in-the-military/
  26. https://theescapeartist.me/2019/07/31/living-low-cost-in-a-high-cost-city/
  27. http://www.retirementinvestingtoday.com/2019/08/refire-and-2019-half-1-review.html
  28. https://earlyretirementnow.com/2019/07/31/rising-equity-glidepath-4-percent-safe-withdrawal-rate-60-year-retirement/
  29. https://youngfiguy.com/working-to-work/
  30. https://cashflowcop.com/avoid-failure-to-launch-into-adulthood/
  31. https://tuppennysfireplace.com/how-to-go-green-thrifty-lifestyle/
  32. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/07/my-concerns-about-investing-in-fossil.html
  33. http://diyinvestoruk.blogspot.com/2019/07/greencoat-uk-wind-portfolio-addition.html
  34. https://firevlondon.com/2019/07/24/why-the-markets-about-to-drop-and-what-im-doing-about-it/
  35. https://firevlondon.com/2019/07/30/angel-investing-1-10-top-tips-for-a-virgin/
  36. https://firevlondon.com/2019/08/04/july-2019-3rd-best-month-yet/
  37. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/07/20/adjustments-to-my-investment-strategy/
  38. http://quietlysaving.co.uk/2019/08/02/july-2019-other-updates/
  39. https://ditchthecave.com/cheap/
  40. https://firehub.eu/bloggers-on-fire-dr-fire/
  41. https://drfire.co.uk/july-2019-report/
  42. https://www.msziyou.com/using-housesitters/
  43. https://www.msziyou.com/portfolio-july-2019/
  44. https://www.msziyou.com/net-worth-updates-july-2019/
  45. https://awaytoless.com/all-change/
  46. https://awaytoless.com/a-frugal-engagement/
  47. https://awaytoless.com/monthly-spending-july-2019/
  48. http://www.thefrugalcottage.com/july-2019-a-month-in-review/
  49. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/07/29/back-to-airbnb/
  50. https://gentlemansfamilyfinances.wordpress.com/2019/08/01/month-end-accounts-july-2019/
  51. http://thecannycontractor.com/passive-income-quarter-2-2019/
  52. https://asimplelifewithsam.com/2019/08/02/july-review/
  53. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/07/19/Difficult-early-retirement-question-%E2%80%93-what%E2%80%99s-next
  54. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/07/26/Early-retirement—whats-next-Take-2
  55. https://www.iretiredyoung.net/single-post/2019/08/02/Early-retirement-costs-targets—July-2019
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  60. https://youtu.be/rzmOYU5Wpdk
  61. https://www.jackwallington.com/google-is-the-best-plant-id-app-and-it-will-only-get-better/
  62. https://www.jackwallington.com/allotment-month-45-salad-harvest-colourful-potatoes-and-rainbow-tomatoes/
  63. https://agentsoffield.com/2019/07/28/the-new-kitchen-garden/

One thought on “The Full English Accompaniment – Sticking my head in the sand

  1. Thanks for the shout out as always.

    “We live in exciting/ perilous/ infuriating times.”

    This. What a time to be alive, eh!

    I still read the news but feel slightly detached from it all, I just can’t get upset or outraged about it all.

    I’m sceptical of what any ‘experts’ are saying on Brexit. Nobody knows what’s going to happen. Yes, the uncertainty and the unknown is scary but the scaremongering is probably doing more harm than good.

    Liked by 1 person

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